Predicted $5.50 per bushel wheat for reminder of marketing year
The March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE) showed this month’s 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024-25 is forecast 3.2 million tons higher to 1.496 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, reduced trade and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is higher as increases for India, Russia and Ukraine are partly offset by declines for South Africa and Mexico. India is raised, reflecting increases to both area and yield; the latest information from the government indicates greater planted area, while yield prospects are higher on exceptional kharif monsoon season rainfall. Russia is increased based on the latest data from Rosstat. Ukraine is raised based on updated harvest information. South Africa is reduced, mostly reflecting lower area. Mexico is cut as lower winter corn yield expectations are partially offset by higher summer corn area. Foreign barley production is raised, with an increase for Australia partly offset by a decline for Argentina.
U.S. 2024-25 soybean supply and use projections are unchanged this month. The soybean oil balance sheet includes higher exports and lower soybean oil used for biofuel. The season-average soybean price is projected at $9.95 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound, respectively.
The outlook for 2024-25 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, lower exports and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised on increased imports, up 10 million bushels to 140 million on a continued robust pace. By-class increases were made to hard red spring (HRS) and durum. Wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 835 million, based on census exports through January and expectations for sales and shipments for the remainder of the marketing year. By-class reductions were made to HRS, soft red winter and durum. Projected 2024-25 ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18% from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced 5 cents per bushel to $5.50 on NASS prices reported to date and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.
Total red meat and poultry production for 2025 is raised on higher beef and chicken production forecasts, which is partially offset by lower pork and turkey production forecasts. The higher beef production forecast is due to heavier dressed weights more than offsetting lower slaughter. The beef export forecast for 2025 is raised, with increased production allowing for additional supplies in the second half of the year. Beef imports are raised on strong shipments during January and continued strong demand for lean processing beef.
Find additional information on the USDA WASDE report from March.
