The current regulations prohibit the importation of fresh meat of ruminants or swine that originates in or crosses a region where foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is considered to exist.
Annual imports of fresh (chilled or frozen) beef from Brazil are expected to range between 20,000 and 65,000 metric tons (MT), with volumes averaging 40,000 MT.
The economic models show that if the U.S. were to import 40,000 MT of beef from Brazil, total U.S. beef imports would increase by less than 1 percent.
Impact on prices
Due to the increase in supply, it is estimated that the wholesale price of beef, the retail price of beef and the price of cattle (steers) would decline by 0.11 percent, 0.04 percent and 0.14 percent, respectively.
The fall in beef prices and resulting decline in U.S. production would translate into reduced returns for producers in the livestock and beef processing sectors.
Under the 40,000 MT import scenario, cattle producers and beef processors are estimated to incur “declines in welfare” of 0.68 percent and 0.14 percent, respectively.
The shift by consumers to beef due to the price decline would cause downward pressure on the prices of pork and other meats. The model indicates that, when the gains of beef consumers and the losses of producers are accounted for, the net welfare gain would be equivalent to about $185 million.
For all modeled sectors, the net welfare change would be positive, with consumer gains of $354 million outweighing producer losses of $165 million.
How you can comment
Visit regulations: Importation of Beef: Region in Brazil to view the entire proposed rule.
APHIS has extended the comment period to April 22, 2014. You may submit comments by either of the following methods:
- Federal eRulemaking portal
- Postal mail/commercial delivery: Send your comment to Docket No. APHIS-2009-0017, Regulatory Analysis and Development, PPD, APHIS, Station 3A-03.8, 4700 River Road Unit 118, Riverdale, MD 20737-1238
Brazil production
Agriculture in Brazil is extremely important with agricultural commodities comprising 37 percent of total exports. Productivity has increased by 71 percent in the last 10 years.
Approximately 90 million hectares (roughly 222 million acres) are currently available for agriculture in the country, and this is without having to cut forests.
Brazil has about 2,403,006 cattle establishments. The domestic animal population consists of 183 million cattle, 1.1 million buffalo, 14.8 million sheep, 12.1 million goats and 33 million pigs.
The export region is located in the southern and central portion of Brazil and is considered to be FMD-free, although they must vaccinate in order to attain this status.
Of the states in the export region, the last outbreaks of FMD occurred in Rio Grande do Sul (2000-2001) and Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul (2005-2006).
Understanding FMD
FMD is a fast-moving, highly contagious viral disease that primarily affects cloven-hoofed animals. Cattle, sheep, goats, deer, buffalo and swine are all adversely affected by FMD, but the effects on cattle herds tend to be particularly devastating.
The death rate from this disease is low; however, both temporary and permanent physical damage to infected animals results in costly losses in meat and milk production. FMD is transmitted to healthy animals through exposure to the active virus.
Exposure may occur through inhalation of airborne droplets (primarily from animals in close contact), ingestion, sexual transmission, conjunctival membranes (e.g., eyes, nose), contact with damaged or diseased skin, inoculation and exposure from ticks or other animals that can carry the FMD virus.
Keeping this disease out of the U.S. is particularly important in that the virus is highly contagious and can survive in the environment for extended periods of time.
It can survive up to 15 weeks in feed, four weeks on cattle hair and up to 103 days in wastewater. The survival of the virus in animal tissues is closely associated with the acidity of that tissue.
An acid environment where the pH is less than 6 will destroy the virus quickly. After death, the production of lactic acid in the muscle tissues will drop the pH and inactivate the virus.
Several studies have shown that in tissues where no acidification occurs (e.g., lymph nodes, bone marrow, fat and blood), the virus may survive for extended times in cured, uncured and frozen meat. Heating up to 155°F will also inactivate the virus.
Control in South America
In the past, FMD has been introduced into Brazil from neighboring countries. According to Brazilian officials, illegal movement of animals from neighboring countries as well as mechanical transmission of the virus has resulted in introduction of the disease.
Brazil has several internal and external border areas with few or no natural barriers. Even where there are barriers or checkpoints, there is the potential that people, cars and animal products can cross both domestic and international borders illegally.
As long as FMD can be found throughout South America, APHIS concluded that there is a risk of reintroduction from adjacent areas into the export region of Brazil.
As recently as 2011, Paraguay reported two outbreaks of FMD type O in the San Pedro region in cattle approximately 250 miles from the Brazilian border.
Therefore, there is a risk that beef destined for the U.S. could originate from or be commingled with animals or animal products from affected neighboring areas.
However, based on evaluation of many factors, observations from the site visits and information provided by Brazil, APHIS concluded that Brazil possesses the detection capabilities, reporting systems and emergency response systems necessary for combating FMD in the export region.
This includes any potential that undetected FMD-infected cattle presented for slaughter, processing and export of meat would be effectively stopped through appropriate processing procedures.
Risks to the U.S.
The consequences of an FMD outbreak in the U.S. would be extremely high. In addition to the direct costs of FMD introduction, the major economic consequence of importing FMD would be export trade losses.
The sum of the consumer impacts, direct costs and trade losses over a 15-year period would be between $37 billion to $42 billion (in 2011 dollars) depending on the magnitude of the outbreak and eradication strategy employed.
The impact of an outbreak of FMD on the rural and regional economic viability, including businesses reliant on livestock revenue, could also be substantial. Although such consequences are significant, it is important to note that the results of U.S. government assessments indicated that the likelihood of introduction and establishment of FMD into the U.S. is low. 
Michelle Arnold
Ruminant Extension Veterinarian
University of Kentucky
