The poultry sector drove the fast pace of meat production growth over the past decade but will also be responsible for the rapid deceleration in meat production over the next decade, the report said. It projected poultry meat production growth would slow to 1.9 percent from 3.7 percent.

World meat exports are expected to increase by 19 percent by 2022, with an annual increase of 1.6 percent, which compares to 4.3 percent growth in the previous decade. Poultry and beef shipments are the primary drivers of export growth.

Overall, global agricultural production is expected to grow 1.5 percent a year on average over the coming decade compared with annual growth of 2.1 percent between 2003 and 2012, according to the report.

Over the coming decade, prices for agricultural products are also expected to rise, the report said, with meat, fish and biofuel prices seeing a stronger increase than primary agricultural products.

Although most crop prices will likely fall as production rebounds, reduced livestock inventories will constrain the supply-side response, keeping meat prices high.

China’s meat consumption growth is expected to outpace its production growth by about 0.3 percent per year, signaling a further but modest opening of China’s agricultural sector, the report said.

China’s meat sector is predicted to continue to expand, which will result in higher imports of feed grains. China is expected to become the world’s leading consumer of pig meat on a per-capita basis, surpassing the European Union, by 2022.

Brazil

The recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar against the Brazilian real (plural – reais) has put Brazilian meat processors and exporters in a difficult position.

Revenue is set to soar for meat exports if the exchange rate continues to rise, but companies holding debt in dollars may suffer uncontrollable losses, according to industry leaders and analysts.

The dollar began 2013 at US$1=BRL2.05 after starting 2012 near BRL1.80. The exchange rate had been held steady through early May of this year with various maneuvers by Brazil’s central bank at a rate between BRL2.00 and BRL2.10, which most in the meat industry considered ideal for stable profit and competitive pricing.

But over the past six weeks, Brazil’s currency has devalued to BRL2.24 as of June 20, driven down by various factors including monetary policy in the U.S. and negative reviews for Brazil as a whole by credit ratings agencies. The recent escalation of social protests throughout the country may add to further devaluation.

With a weaker currency, meat exporters like JBS, BRF and others are reporting year-on-year gains in export revenue. Brazilian beef exports for January through May set a new revenue record, with US$2.5 billion improving annual sales by 15 percent.

“The weakened exchange rate helps promote exports, and there is space for growth in (global demand) of meat exports still,” said Fernando Sampaio, executive-director of Brazil’s beef industry trade association, ABIEC.

“We in Brazil are used to exchange rates of BRL3.00 or more in past years. … If the real gets weaker, it will only help exporters here more.”

The ability to earn more reais per dollar is also allowing Brazilian processors to offer discounts in dollars to their export clients while maintaining the same revenue in reais, said Cesar de Castro Alves, sector analyst with MBAgro consultancy in Sao Paulo.

But Brazilian producers and exporters face various costs based in dollars that are now rising, from soybean and corn inputs to export operational costs, said Ricardo Santin, markets director for Brazil’s poultry processors and exporters association, Ubabef.

“Even domestic grains can become more expensive when our international sales increase, on account of the added competitiveness for these grains to be sold for export as well,” he said.

“All of this directly impacts our costs, and certainly our competitiveness,” noted Clever Pirola Avila, president of industry trade union Sindicarne.

“In addition, this impacts the internal market with the inflation rate, provoking an impact on the purchasing power of domestic consumers and unfortunately reducing their consumption.”

Potentially, the most negative impact of a runaway exchange rate this year for Brazilian processors will be on those holding large amounts of debt in dollars, said analyst Castro Alves.

“This could be bigger than the positive impact on export sales,” he said. “Those that have revenue in reais and high debt in dollars could face big problems.

I think the worst is the great volatility with this rate and that neither side (buyer or seller) really knows how to position themselves.”

Dominican Republic

Dominican Agriculture Minister Luis Ramon Rodriguez is developing an operational plan to reopen exports of beef, chicken, pork and eggs to the U.S. and its neighboring Caribbean countries.

As part of the program, epidemiological inspection will certify farms and abattoirs in order to ensure that the sanitary and phytosanitary measures recommended by authorities are implemented.

Rodriguez said health inspections carried out in the country over the last three years show a low incidence of disease, so the authorities’ plans should not be delayed.

The authorities are taking samples for laboratory analysis to verify the absence of avian influenza, Newcastle’s disease and classical swine fever.

“We will proceed to a sampling protocol that will allow us in the near future to certify the country free of avian influenza and Newcastle disease in chickens, and classical swine fever in pigs,” he said.

In the case of cattle, Rodriguez said the diseases present in the Dominican Republic are common in most continental countries and so are not internationally notifiable.

He explained that to export beef it was only necessary to establish a traceability system that contains all the information of the food, such as the source, slaughter date and the name and location of the farm.

“The cattle have no health problems, and it is only required to establish a system of inspection that guarantees traceability. This involves adapting slaughterhouses and training livestock exporters,” he said. 

Clint Peck is former director of Montana’s Beef Quality Assurance program.