The latest USDA Cattle Inventory report, released on Jan. 31, confirmed another year of contraction in the beef cattle industry.
According to the semiannual report, total cattle inventory as of Jan. 1, 2023, totaled 89.3 million head, 3% below the 92.1 million head this time last year. This is the smallest reported inventory since 2015.
“The decline in cattle inventories comes as no surprise given the extent of drought-driven liquidation in the beef cow herd and an acceleration of feeder cattle and calf movement into feedyards and through the harvest system,” said Patrick Linnell, CattleFax analyst, in a report.
It was apparent the beef cow herd had gotten smaller, but just how much smaller? The report noted an 11% increase in beef cow slaughter in 2022, combined with a 6% decrease in heifer retention – a larger decrease than seen in the January or July report from last year. The number of beef cows was estimated at 28.9 million head, down 4% or 1.16 million head from Jan. 1, 2022, and the first time the cow herd has dipped below 29 million head since 2014.
“For perspective, this puts the size of the U.S. cow herd below 2014 levels and the smallest since 1962,” said Kenny Burdine, extension professor for livestock marketing at the University of Kentucky, in a report.
The 2022 calf crop was reported at 34.5 million head, down 2% or 621,000 head from the previous year’s calf crop. According to Linnell, this was 136,000 head lower than the initial USDA estimate in July but not a surprise given the lower revision to the beef cow herd.
Linnell wrote, “The tighter cattle inventories reported by the USDA confirm that several more years of smaller calf crops and tighter cattle numbers are ahead. The cattle cycle is a slow ship to turn.”
—Compiled from CattleFax and Cattle Market Notes Weekly
