The March Feed Outlook report shows the global 2023-24 corn stocks are reduced. Foreign corn production is lower this month, as it was last month, with the largest reductions for South Africa, Ukraine and Mexico. Increased 2022-23 and 2023-24 corn output, competitive prices and a swift pace of exports bolster Argentina’s export prospects, while corn exports for Brazil are down. Global barley and sorghum trade are projected slightly higher and China’s imports of these crops are increased.
Additionally, there are no changes to the 2023-24 U.S. corn outlook compared to last month. The season-average price forecast received by U.S. farmers is lowered to $4.75 per bushel from $4.80 last month.
Movements in feed grains prices
Expectations of a recovery in global corn production for 2023-24 have contributed to a reversion of U.S. corn market prices to lower levels.
Over the past five years, U.S. corn prices peaked across principal cash markets, just shy of $9 per bushel. However, just over a year later, prices in these same markets were, on average, 40% lower to start the 2023-24 marketing year. Throughout the next six months, U.S. corn-cash prices fell 55 cents per bushel in central Illinois, for example, and by 88 cents per bushel in the Louisiana Gulf.
The lower cash-market prices have been transmitted to average farm prices. The average price U.S. corn farmers received in September 2023 was $5.21 per bushel, compared to $4.74 per bushel in January 2024 – a nearly 50-cent-per-bushel reduction. These factors have contributed to a 5-cent-per-bushel reduction in the projected average corn price received by U.S. farmers in 2023-24 to $4.75 per bushel.
The 2023-24 all-barley price forecast is also lowered this month. The 2023-24 all-barley price is lowered from $7.50 to $7.40 per bushel. Additionally, oats prices have remained steady and strong. Prices received by U.S. oats farmers in January are the second-highest reported price behind the June 2023 price at $4.07 per bushel. Given the reported prices to date, the 2023-24 season average oats price forecast is raised from $3.70 per bushel to $3.80 per bushel.
The global coarse grain output is projected lower this month compared to last’s; however, the global coarse grain consumption is slightly higher, making stock projects lower this month compared to last’s.
Additionally, the shift among major exporters continues, slightly reducing global corn trade. The March forecast for record-high world corn trade for the October-September international trade year 2023-24 is projected 0.5 million tons lower this month at 197.5 million.
Find additional information on the USDA Feed Outlook report from March.
