The April Feed Outlook report shows the 2023-24 U.S. corn ending stocks are reduced on higher domestic use. U.S. corn ending stocks are lower this month after upward adjustments for corn ethanol and feed and residual use. Based on second-quarter indicated disappearance in 2023-24, feed and residual corn use is raised by 25 million bushels to 5.7 billion. Corn used for ethanol production is raised by the same volume and is expected to reach 5.4 billion bushels. The 2023-24 season-average farm corn price is lowered by 5 cents per bushel to $4.70 per bushel, according to the Feed Outlook report.
Prospective corn plantings are lower for 2024
The USDA Prospective Plantings report indicates corn acreage is expected to be down 4.61 million acres from last year at 90 million acres. Reductions in acreage are expected across 38 of the 48 estimating U.S. states. While not completely offsetting, many of these acres will likely be replaced with soybeans. Market conditions have incentivized plantings of other crops, or none at all, resulting in an overall decrease in principal crop acres, according to the Feed Outlook report.
While it is early in the planting season, conditions have spurred a slight uptick in planting pace. The U.S. Drought Monitor shows a smaller portion, 5%, of the new corn crop is in drought relative to last year. These factors are relevant when thinking about preventative planting possibilities as the season progresses. Despite the reduction in corn acreage, conditions for the 2024-25 corn crop are better than this time last year, according to the Feed Outlook report.
Sorghum and barley
The USDA NASS Grain Stocks report estimates U.S. sorghum stocks in all positions at 106 million bushels as of March 1 – 2.7% lower than inventory levels during the same period last year. The 2023-24 forecast for average prices received by U.S. sorghum farmers also remains unchanged this month at $4.85 per bushel. The Prospective Plantings report indicates U.S. sorghum producers intend to reduce sorghum planted area for 2024 by 800,000 acres to 6.4 million acres.
The 2023-24 U.S. barley use forecast is unchanged this month at 189 million bushels. Consequently, the 2023-24 all-barley season-average price forecast is lowered this month from $7.40 per bushel to $7.35 per bushel.
World coarse grain production prospects are down slightly
World 2023-24 coarse grain production is forecast down 2.3 million tons this month. Reduced corn production in South Africa, Argentina and Mexico are the main drivers of this month’s changes, along with a partly offsetting higher production estimate for the European Union and several smaller changes for a few countries. Coarse grain production in the U.S. is unchanged this month, according to the Feed Outlook report.
The U.S. corn export forecast for 2023-24 is unchanged this month at 54 million tons (and has not been altered since December 2023).
Find additional information on the USDA Feed Outlook report from April.
