The October Feed Outlook report shows this month’s 2024-25 U.S. coarse grains outlook is for reduced supplies, despite an increase in output. Although sorghum supplies are raised on higher production and beginning stocks, lower corn carry-in for 2024-25 more than offsets these gains – including a corn production bump. A decrease in 2024-25 barley yields slightly reduces output, placing further downward pressure on U.S. coarse grains supplies. Total coarse grains use is raised slightly this month, as an increase in corn use – reflecting greater exports – and oats use is offset by a reduction in barley use (feed and residual).
World 2024-25 coarse grains production is projected lower this month. A reduced foreign coarse grains output projection outpaces gains in U.S. coarse grains output, as lower corn and barley outputs are slightly offset by increases in sorghum and oats. 2023-24 foreign corn trade (international trade year) is forecast lower and elevates the 2024-25 foreign corn-beginning stocks. 2024-25 global domestic corn use is forecast higher, while projected 2024-25 foreign trade is forecast lower. 2024-25 global corn stocks are projected lower.
2024-25 U.S. corn ending stocks are down on lower supplies and greater use
In its October Crop Production report, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) indicated 2024-25 corn production will be 15.2 billion bushels, up 17.8 million bushels from last month. This increase is the result of an unchanged harvested area at 82.7 million acres and a 0.2-bushel-per-acre increase in the yield forecast to 183.6 bushels per acre.
A 51.3 million-bushel reduction in 2024-25 beginning stocks to 1.76 billion bushels, as reported in the NASS September Grain Stocks report, offsets production gains and reduces prospective corn supply to 17 billion bushels. This estimate represents a record U.S. corn supply, if realized.
Despite a downward revision to 2024-25 marketing year supplies, implied U.S. corn exports are off to a strong start. Through Oct. 3, U.S. corn export inspections exceeded 2023 volumes by 22%. This is noteworthy, considering Argentina’s corn export prices are now the cheapest of the U.S.’s main competitors in the global market, with the U.S. remaining competitive with Brazil. These price dynamics are reflected in sluggish U.S. corn export sales and inspections volumes to China – a top-five U.S. corn export destination – early in 2024-25. However, stagnant import demand by China is replaced by heightened year-over-year demand for U.S. corn by other major export destinations – like Japan, Colombia and Mexico. In fact, U.S. export sales data reported in the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) U.S. Export Sales indicate 48% of accumulated corn exports through Oct. 3 are destined for Mexico – a country recovering from a drought-induced underperforming crop. These early-season shipments to Mexico contribute to a total commitments estimate nearly 2.4 million tons higher than this time last year, at 17.7 million tons. Hence, a weakening position in the global market, as it pertains to U.S. export prices, does not dampen 2024-25 corn export prospects.
Find additional information on the USDA Feed Outlook report from October.
