The March Feed Outlook report shows global coarse grains production prospects are raised for 2024-25. This month’s 2024-25 U.S. coarse grains outlook is for a slight reduction in supplies, with greater declines in use – ultimately lifting ending stocks by nearly 0.5 million tons.
Based on recorded import volumes to date, the 2024-25 barley and oats import forecasts are lowered by 1 and 5 million bushels, respectively. Thus, offsetting changes to barley feed and residual and food, seed and industrial use place downward pressure on ending stocks. The reduction in oats supply is expected to impact feed and residual use, leaving ending stocks unchanged.
Foreign 2024-25 coarse grains production is projected up this month, with gains expected across the complex. The largest increase is for corn production – particularly India. Complemented by higher corn production prospects in Russia, Ukraine and Turkey – reductions for South Africa and Mexico are largely offset. Anticipated gains in 2024-25 barley production are driven by higher expected output in Australia, partly offset by reduced barley output in Argentina and Ukraine. Lower beginning stocks, stemming from back-year revisions to corn, partly offset coarse grains production gains. Regardless, these impacts are expected to spur domestic coarse grains consumption, reducing export volumes and place downward pressure on 2024-25 ending stocks.
Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census indicate U.S. corn exports for January 2025 were the highest thus far in 2024-25 at 243 million bushels – contributing to the aggregated marketing year total of just over 970 million bushels. For reference, the year-to-date total is nearly 240 million bushels higher than last year’s January cumulative total. Looking ahead, future indicators of U.S. corn exports indicate foreign demand for U.S. corn will remain elevated. In fact, data provided by the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service show that February corn inspections are nearly 25% higher than last year and closely align with January 2025 inspections. Similarly, U.S. corn commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) through February are 22% higher than the same time last year, at 1,951 million bushels.
These factors are complemented by favorable global market conditions. Although Argentina’s corn export prices remain the most competitive with U.S. prices, South American prices remain a premium to U.S. corn export prices. Thus, these indicators place corn usage to be on track to meet the current export forecast (2.45 billion bushels), despite market uncertainty.
Not only are U.S. corn exports strengthening through January 2025, but so are ethanol exports. Combining U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Census Bureau data, 2024-25 ethanol export volumes through January exceed last year’s five-month total by over 30%. Although observed corn-to-ethanol conversion rates are generally more efficient in 2024-25, strengthening foreign demand for U.S. ethanol has spurred corn-use-for-ethanol production nearly 50 million bushels higher than last year’s cumulative total through January. However, corn price premiums relative to sorghum have incentivized greater sorghum use for ethanol production. With last month’s upward revision to sorghum food, seed and industrial (FSI) use, the United States is poised to satisfy (stable) domestic gasoline consumption and foreign ethanol demand. Consequently, the USDA’s corn-use-for ethanol production outlook is unchanged this month at 5.5 billion bushels. The season-average corn price forecast remains at $4.35 per bushel.
Find additional information on the USDA Feed Outlook report from March.
