“Just a second. Just be patient,” is a phrase I find myself often repeating to my 2-year-old, and might I add very determined daughter.
Whether she’s tugging on my finger for the umpteenth time to open the pantry door for a “nack,” trying to escape the church pew way before the closing prayer or repeatedly crying “cup!” as we’re trying to finish laying out handlines in the pasture.
And as anyone who has been around a toddler knows, they have about as much patience as a rancher waiting for the trucks to show up on shipping day.
There is a well-known study from the 1960s where a Stanford University professor tested the willpower of 4-year-old children. Placing a large marshmallow in front of each child, the professor told them they could eat it right away or, if they waited 15 minutes, they could have two marshmallows. He then left the children alone and watched to see what happened.
As you may have guessed, some of the children could wait only a few minutes before giving in to temptation and ate the marshmallow; others grappled with the challenge – poking and playing with the sugary lure – but were able to hold off for the allotted time. Surprisingly, or maybe not-so-surprisingly, only 30% of the kids mustered enough self-discipline to wait for two marshmallows.
Everyone in the beef industry remembers 2014-15 – after all, the euphoria of calves in the $2.50-per-pound range isn’t something that is easily forgotten. However, a similar situation is happening today. With the ongoing story of tight cattle supplies, the cow-calf sector is expected to be in a good position for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024. Profitability might not be as strong as years past due to feed costs and drought concerns, but most can agree there’s plenty to be optimistic about.
Recently I stumbled across an interesting article from 2016 titled, “Lessons learned from the 2014 and 2015 Cattle Markets.” In it, Kenny Burdine in the department of agricultural economics at the University of Kentucky wrote, “There is a longtime adage by agricultural economists that the cure to high prices is high prices. … The folks hit hardest by [the next drop in cattle prices] will be the ones who made decisions in the last couple of years as though calf prices were going to stay at $2.50 for years to come.”
To Burdine’s point, the producers who made wise decisions during high cattle prices were the ones who were in the best position once prices fell. Just like the kids in the study, when faced with a present opportunity, a long-term perspective can often yield the best results, or in their case – two marshmallows.
Now if you'll excuse me, my daughter needs her "cup!"
