Milk futures remain high as feed costs drop to levels last seen in 2020, yet other market pressures such as lower butter and cheese prices and waning holiday demand, as well as recent milk production reports revealing gains for the first time in more than a year, complicate the matter.

The outlook for dairy producers continues to be strong for the remainder of the year, despite milk futures retreating some – albeit still high compared to less fruitful years – and an anticipated high-yielding 2024 harvest. October’s income-over-feed cost projections remain in dairy producers’ favor for a profitable month with the margin just shy of $16 as of Sept. 24.

Futures prices for milk and feed are looking favorable for dairy producers with the fourth quarter of 2024 on the horizon. At the time of this report, the all-milk price forecast was at a staggering $25.06 per hundredweight (cwt) for September and feed costs were at $10.27 per cwt, the lowest since 2020.

Margin outlook has significantly improved from a few months ago as sustained high cheese and butter prices drive milk prices higher and lower feed costs all contribute to the positive outlook.

Margins appear encouraging with the recent swell in Class III prices and improved feed costs. Cheese exports to Mexico have also been critical for U.S. dairy producers as shipments to China and Southeast Asia have slowed. Yet, with extreme weather conditions and the continued spread of avian influenza, having a strategy to manage risk is essential.

The dairy landscape is seeing rapid, much-welcomed improvements as milk markets rallied in May with Class III futures surpassing $20 per hundredweight (cwt), $4 above April’s prices. Coupled with feed costs receding, dairy margins are looking better for the remainder of the year.

As predicted, milk prices recovered some in April with Class III at $15.57 per hundredweight (cwt) during the last full week of the month and futures jumping more than $1 for May and June. Unpredictability is still expected in the marketplace, and producers are encouraged to enroll in the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) safety net program.

Dairy Revenue Protection (Dairy-RP) has emerged as an effective risk management tool for dairy producers, offering protection against unexpected declines in quarterly milk revenue.

Here's Progressive Dairy’s look ahead at important dates, reports and advice affecting risk management decisions, as well as other information impacting your milk check in April.