A colleague asked me the other day why the drought monitor maps and teacup reservoir graphs in the magazine still looked anemic. I told him to be patient. The spring melt was slow in coming, but it would come. I think I texted this to him from my phone while I was numbly trying to endure a very cold, very windy, very Idaho-ish track meet. But spring does come. It won’t be denied. Between snow flurries, I have seen green grain trying to look bold in a few fields.
As producers try to determine crop plantings for the coming year, water is one of the greater determining factors. Although the winter has set record snowpacks in some regions, the extended previous drought still leaves producers wondering how much water will actually be available for crops.
Producer Jared Zito of Elmore County says, “The changes we are making this year include diversifying in other crops to help adapt to the fluctuation in commodity prices, as well as improve overall soil and product quality. Weather is definitely a factor in making this all happen. In past years, planting is just wrapping up about now [early April], but that is not the case this year. Crossing our fingers for better weather the next couple weeks.”
Producer David Patrick in Twin Falls County says, “Yes, my plans are a bit different than other years. With a late spring, my grain plant dates are pushed later, as well as my sugarbeets could be. I have also cut beans and corn out of my rotation [for now] due to how the upper Snake River aquifer overpumping has affected our senior water rights. These are some of the factors that I have to think about.”
Of course, water is on everyone’s mind. Kimberly farmer Larry Hollifield says, “We don’t alter crop rotations tremendously, but I think we’ll see a shift from grains back to corn acres for silage, as water is not as dire as last year. It probably won’t be a dramatic shift, but corn silage is nice and easy to grow, and with the dairies, there’s a home for it.” He adds, “I think this year will be more ‘normal’ to what our historical averages are because it looks [like] we’ll have what we need for water. We need more winters like this, but this late spring will help the water issue, too – even though we’ll complain. …”
Water outlook
The March Idaho snowpack report from the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) positively states, "After years of dealing with water supply shortages and drought, basins in southeastern Idaho have been receiving well above normal precipitation nearly all winter. Not only are all basins well above normal for precipitation and snow water equivalent (SWE), but recent snowfall has brought record to near-record snow depths as well. With monthly measurements going back nearly 70 years, a dozen snow telemetry (SNOTEL) and snow course sites in the Bear River and Willow-Blackfoot-Portneuf basins have the highest or second-highest snow depth for March 1. With over a month to go in the snow accumulation season, there is plenty of time for more snow to fall in this already impressive water year.
“Water supply varies significantly across the state, despite near- to above-normal snowpack conditions. Water supply will likely be limited for some Upper Snake River water users and Oakley Reservoir users unless the snowpack grows to well above normal and/or a rainy spring occurs. The water supply in the Boise River Basin looks very good this year. Water supply for Salmon Falls Reservoir users is on the cusp of being sufficient to meet irrigation demand; the streamflow forecasts currently predict sufficient water for this area. We are concerned about adequate water supply for Magic Reservoir water users due to low storage and the decrease in this area’s snowpack during February. However, water supply could be alleviated by the above-normal snowpack in Camas Prairie this winter if more snowmelt is generated from this area than forecasted.”
While 79% of Idaho lands were in moderate-to-severe drought on March 1, with the remainder of the state abnormally dry, the outlook predicts drought removal across Idaho. What is still a concern is dry soil. Its water-holding capacity must be filled before snowmelt fills reservoirs.
Extended drought years resulted in below-normal reservoir storage heading into the 2023 spring. While many reservoir storages are predicted to fill or come close to filling, the Upper Snake River system (above Milner Dam) is unlikely to fill this year unless the snowpack continues to increase and we have a rainy spring.
Idaho projected plantings
The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) projected plantings for Idaho, as reported by growers, indicates corn acreage will reach a record high of 390,000 acres, up 22% over last year. Small chickpeas and lentils are also increasing acreages (30,000 acres and 23,000 acres, respectively) – an increase of 100% in chickpeas and 53% in lentils.
Potato acreages are expected to increase over 2022 acreage to cover the processing requirements of the Lamb Weston American Falls expansion. However, limited seed supplies will pinch growers. There is some talk of cutting seed pieces smaller and using uncertified seed, both of which could limit yields.
Other crops with prospective increased acreages this year include barley (up 5% to 590,000 acres), all wheat (up 3% to 1,195,000 acres) and dry edible peas (up 7% at 30,000 acres).
Crop acreages that are expected to remain relatively unchanged include sugarbeets, while crops expected to decrease significant acreages include large chickpeas, durum wheat and oats (Table 1).
While Idaho hay acres are projected to be down slightly (-3% with 1,370,000 acres), record-low harvest area is expected in California, Delaware, Illinois, North Dakota, Ohio, Rhode Island and Wisconsin.
Nationally
Sugarbeets: Area expected to be planted to sugarbeets for the 2023 crop year is estimated at 1.11 million acres, down 4% from 2022. Intended acreages are expected to be the lowest since 2008. Record-low planted area is expected in Montana. A cold wet spring in Idaho is already delaying sugarbeet plantings, which will most likely decrease yield at harvest.
All wheat: Planted area for 2023 is estimated at 49.9 million acres, up 9% from 2022. The 2023 winter wheat planted area, at 37.5 million acres, is up 13% from last year and up 2% from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 26 million acres are hard red winter, 7.8 million acres are soft red winter and 3.71 million acres are white winter. Area expected to be planted to other spring wheat for 2023 is estimated at 10.6 million acres, down 2% from 2022. Of this total, about 9.95 million acres are hard red spring wheat. Durum planted area for 2023 is expected to total 1.78 million acres, up 9% from the previous year.
