August 2021-22 recap at a glance
Reviewing the USDA preliminary estimates for August 2022 compared to August 2021:
- U.S. milk production: 19.02 billion pounds, up 1.6%
- U.S. cow numbers: 9.427 million, down 11,000 head
- U.S. average milk per cow: 2,018 pounds, up 34 pounds
- 24-state milk production: 18.22 billion pounds, up 1.7%
- 24-state cow numbers: 8.928 million, down 11,000 head
- 24-state average milk per cow: 2,041 pounds, up 37 pounds
Source: USDA Milk Production report, Sept. 19, 2022
Reversing last summer’s downward trend, August 2022 U.S. milk production increased as cow numbers moved higher and overcame hot weather to boost output per cow.
Cow trendline changes
Last summer, U.S. cow numbers were on a path of sharp decline, dropping by about 45,000 head between July and August 2021, culminating in a 140,000-head decline between May 2021 and January 2022.
Preliminary August 2022 U.S. cow numbers were estimated at 9.427 million head, up 8,000 from July and pulling within 11,000 of August 2021. Among the 24 major dairy states, August 2022 cow numbers were estimated at 8.928 million, also up 8,000 from July and 11,000 less than August 2021.
Texas led all states in year-over-year growth in August 2022, up 30,000 head from August 2021, followed by South Dakota, (+22,000), Iowa (+13,000) and Georgia (+11,000).
Compared to a year earlier, cow number declines were again heaviest in New Mexico and Michigan, down 24,000 and 15,000 head, respectively.
Milk-per-cow growth improves
Despite widespread reports of high heat and humidity this summer, growth in milk production per cow improved, with monthly production in the U.S. and major dairy states up about 35 pounds from year-ago August levels. Year-over-year milk per cow increased in 19 states, led by New Mexico, up about 3 pounds per day. Only Florida and Arizona saw lower output per cow compared to the same month a year earlier.
Milk production summary
With the growth in cow numbers and more stable milk output per cow, August overall milk production was up 1.6% in the U.S. and 1.7% among major dairy states compared to a year earlier. Although still moderate, that’s the strongest year-over-year upturn since July 2021.
August 2022 year-over-year milk production was up in 14 states. Texas led all states in terms of volume growth, up 113 million pounds, followed by California (+69 million) and South Dakota (+46 million). Florida, New Mexico and Washington posted small declines.
Georgia and South Dakota led all states in year-over-year percentage milk growth, each up more than 14% from the prior year. Florida milk production was down about 10%.
