The USDA’s monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released Nov. 9, raised the 2022 U.S. milk production estimate from last month’s forecast but left the 2023 production forecast unchanged. Projected prices for both years were reduced slightly.
The USDA forecasts lower cow inventories but a rise in output per cow for both years.
- Compared to a month ago, the USDA raised the 2022 milk production forecast by 100 million pounds, to 227 billion pounds. If realized, 2022 production would be up 700 million pounds (0.3%) from 2021 and up less than 1.7% from 2020.
For 2022, annual average price forecasts for butter, cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM) were lowered based on current prices and larger milk supplies. The projected whey price was unchanged.
Compared to a month ago, the projected 2022 annual average Class III price was cut 10 cents to $21.80 per hundredweight (cwt). The projected Class IV price was reduced 30 cents to $24.30 per cwt. The 2022 all-milk price forecast was cut 10 cents from last month to $25.50 per cwt.
- For 2023, the USDA projected milk production at 229.2 billion pounds, the same as last month’s forecast. If realized, 2023 production would be up less than 1% from the 2022 estimate.
For 2023, the price forecast for butter was raised but lowered for cheese and NDM. The projected whey price was unchanged. The projected Class III price was reduced 15 cents to $19.65 per cwt, while the Class IV price forecast was cut 65 cents to $20.35 per cwt. The projected 2023 all-milk price was reduced 30 cents to $22.60 per cwt.
Beef production, price outlook
The 2022 beef production estimate was raised with higher expected slaughter and heavier carcass weights. For 2023, the beef production forecast was lowered on tighter supplies of fed cattle and lower cow slaughter.
Potentially affecting cull cow prices, the fed cattle price forecast for 2022 was raised $1 from last month to $144.15 per cwt, nearly $22 higher than the 2021 average of $122.40 per cwt. Fourth-quarter 2022 prices were expected to average $152 per cwt.
The estimated 2023 annual average price for fed cattle was $156 per cwt, up $2 from last month’s forecast.
Feed price, production forecasts
The WASDE and Crop Production reports provided some updated feed supply and demand estimates and price projections:
- Corn: This month’s 2022-23 U.S. corn outlook called for increased supplies, consumption, trade and ending stocks. Corn production for grain was forecast at 13.9 billion bushels, up less than 1% from the previous forecast but down 8% from 2021. Based on conditions as of Nov. 1, yields were expected to average 172.3 bushels per harvested acre, down 4.4 bushels from last year. Area harvested for grain, forecast at 80.8 million acres, was unchanged from the previous forecast but down 5% from the previous year.
At $6.80 per bushel, the projected season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged from last month’s forecast and is up 80 cents (13%) from the 2021-22 average of $6 per bushel and about $2.27 (50%) more than the 2020-21 average of $4.53 per bushel.
- Soybeans: The 2022-23 U.S. soybean supply and use outlook called for increased production, crush and ending stocks. Soybean production for beans was forecast at 4.35 billion bushels, up 1% from the previous forecast but down 3% from last year. Based on conditions as of Nov. 1, yields were expected to average 50.2 bushels per harvested acre, down 1.5 bushels from 2021. Area harvested for beans was forecast at 86.6 million acres, up less than 1% from 2021.
The U.S. season-average soybean price received by producers for 2022-23 was forecast at $14 per bushel, unchanged from last month’s projections but still up 70 cents from 2021-22 and $3.20 more than the 2020-21 average.
The 2022-23 soybean meal price was projected at $400 per ton, up $10 from last month’s forecast but down about $40 (9%) from the $440 per ton average in 2021-22.
- Hay: The USDA’s November Crop Production report did not provide an update on hay and forage harvests. Last month’s report reduced hay production estimates for 2022. Production of alfalfa and alfalfa mixture dry hay for 2022 was forecast at 48.8 million tons, down 1% from 2021. Production of other dry hay was forecast at 63.2 million tons, down 11% from 2021.
- Cottonseed: Affecting cottonseed, the 2022 cotton production estimate was raised 2% from a month ago at 14 million bales. As a result, the cottonseed harvest was estimated at 4.26 million tons, up 65,000 tons from last month’s forecast but down 1.06 million tons (20%) from 2021. It would be the lowest cottonseed output since 2015.
