November 2021-22 recap at a glance
Reviewing the USDA preliminary estimates for November 2022 compared to November 2021:
- U.S. milk production: 18.25 billion pounds, up 1.3%
- U.S. cow numbers: 9.42 million, up 38,000 head
- U.S. average milk per cow: 1,937 pounds, up 17 pounds
- 24-state milk production: 18.48 billion pounds, up 1.4%
- 24-state cow numbers: 8.936 million, up 42,000 head
- 24-state average milk per cow: 1,956 pounds, up 17 pounds
Source: USDA Milk Production report, Dec. 19, 2022
The month changed but the trend didn’t: November 2022 U.S. milk production was up about 1.3% from a year ago, with continued slow growth in cow numbers and a small increase in milk output per cow contributing factors.
October revised production, at 18.0 billion pounds, was up 1.3% from October 2021. The October revision represented a decrease of 18 million pounds (0.1%) from last month's preliminary production estimate.
Cow numbers inch higher
Preliminary November 2022 U.S. cow numbers were estimated at 9.42 million head, up 38,000 from a year ago and 1,000 more than the October 2022 revised estimate. It’s the highest number of cows in U.S. herds since August 2021. The USDA also revised the October 2022 estimate up 1,000 from last month’s preliminary estimate.
Among the 24 major dairy states (Table 1), November 2022 cow numbers were estimated at 8.936 million, up 48,000 from November 2021 and 1,000 more than October 2022. It’s also the highest number of cows in those states in 15 months. The USDA also revised the preliminary October 2022 cow count up by 1,000 head.
Texas led all states in year-over-year herd growth in November 2022, up 30,000 cows from a year ago, followed by South Dakota, Iowa, Idaho and Georgia. Cow numbers in those five states were up a combined 85,000 head compared to a year ago.
Compared to a year earlier, cow number declines were again heaviest in New Mexico and Florida, down 13,000 and 11,000 head, respectively.
Milk-per-cow growth still modest
The year-over-year increase in average milk production per cow was again modest, up just over one-half pound per day across the U.S. (Table 2). Year-over-year milk per cow increased in 14 states, led by Michigan, New York and Vermont, each up about 55 pounds per month.
Cows in five states, led by California, had monthly production declines of 10-15 pounds compared to November 2021.
Volume, percentage growth
With cow numbers and milk output per cow up, November 2022 overall milk production was up 1.3% in the U.S. and 1.4% among major dairy states compared to a year earlier.
November 2022 year-over-year milk production was up in 15 states. Texas led all states in terms of volume growth, up 80 million pounds, nearly offsetting an 83 million-pound combined decline in eight other states. Joining Texas, producers in New York, South Dakota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Idaho increased milk output by 248 million pounds, combined. The eight states posting volume declines were led by New Mexico, Florida and California.
Georgia (+13.1%) and South Dakota (+10.8%) again led all states in year-over-year percentage milk growth. In contrast, Florida milk production was down about 10.8%.
