Weaker milk output per cow in California and fewer milk cows in Wisconsin helped cap year-over-year milk production growth in March 2023, according to the USDA’s monthly Milk Production report. The March data was also collected prior to the fire the killed an estimated 18,000 cows at South Fork Dairy in Dimmitt, Texas, on April 10.
March 2022-23 dairy recap at a glance
Reviewing the USDA preliminary estimates for March 2023 compared to March 2022:
- U.S. milk production: 19.805 billion pounds, up 0.5%
- U.S. cow numbers: 9.435 million, up 31,000 head
- U.S. average milk per cow: 2,099 pounds, up 3 pounds
- 24-state milk production: 18,946 billion pounds, up 0.6%
- 24-state cow numbers: 8.952 million, up 44,000 head
- 24-state average milk per cow: 2,116 pounds, up 3 pounds
Source: USDA Milk Production report, April 19, 2023
Cow numbers higher
Preliminary March 2023 U.S. cow numbers were estimated at 9.435 million head, up 31,000 from a year earlier and 6,000 more than February’s revised estimate. U.S. cow numbers were the highest since August 2021.
Among the 24 major dairy states (Table 1), March 2023 cow numbers were estimated at 8.952 million, up 44,000 from March 2022 and 6,000 more than February 2023. Cow numbers in those states were the highest since July 2021.
As noted previously, the March 2023 cow numbers were estimated prior to the fire the killed an estimated 18,000 cows at South Fork Dairy in Dimmitt, Texas, on April 10. Without that loss, Texas cow numbers were up 17,000 head from a year earlier, with Idaho (15,000), South Dakota (13,000), and Iowa and New York (each 10,000) also posting significant gains.
Compared to a year earlier, cow number declines were again heaviest in New Mexico and Florida, down 14,000 and 7,000 head, respectively.
Milk per cow change stagnant
The year-over-year change in average milk production per cow for March was stagnant, up just 3 pounds compared to the same month a year earlier (Table 2), both nationally and within the 24 major states. Year-over-year milk per cow increased more than a pound per day in just Texas and Virginia. Compared to a year earlier, monthly output per cow was down 45 pounds in California.
Milk production increases
With the year-over-year increase in cow numbers offset by little growth in milk output per cow, March 2023 overall milk production was up 0.5% in the U.S. and 0.6% among major dairy states compared to the same month a year earlier.
March 2023 year-over-year milk production was up in 12 states. Texas led all states in terms of volume growth, up 68 million pounds, with Idaho up 43 million pounds. Michigan (29 million pounds), New York (28 million pounds), South Dakota (24 million pounds) and Iowa (17 million pounds) also posted larger increases.
The 11 states posting volume declines were led by California, New Mexico, Arizona and Florida, which were down a combined 126 million pounds.
South Dakota (+7%) and Kansas (+4.8%) led all states in year-over-year percentage milk growth. In contrast, New Mexico and Florida milk production was down about 5.5% and 4.4%, respectively.
