Dairy exports are forecast at $8 billion for fiscal year 2024 (Oct. 1, 2023, to Sept. 30, 2024), the same value from May’s estimate, according to the USDA’s latest quarterly report announced Aug. 27.
To date in 2024, total dairy exports are valued at $5.9 billion with the fiscal year-end forecast at $8 billion. However, there is expected to be pleasant growth in 2025, reflective of cheese’s higher global prices and purchasers’ continued interest in nonfat dry milk and lactose imports. If realized, the export forecast for fiscal year 2025 is $100 million more than 2024 at $8.1 billion.
August’s report revised the forecast for fiscal year 2024 U.S. dairy imports $100 million lower to $5.5 billion due to leisurely purchases of cheese, infant formula and dairy-containing products. In May, the forecast for fiscal year 2024 cheese imports was at $2 billion. That has since been revised to $1.9 billion for fiscal year 2024 and down another $100 million to $1.8 billion for fiscal year 2025. Yet, as a whole, dairy imports in fiscal year 2025 are forecast at $5.6 billion, $100 million higher than this year.
For the remainder of 2024, the dairy, livestock and poultry exports are forecast $200 million higher than May’s estimates to $38.7 billion. In fiscal year 2025, these exports are projected at $38.6 billion, down $100 million for fiscal year 2024. This decline is primarily due to fewer beef exports but offset by more exports of pork, poultry and dairy products.
The export forecast for fiscal year 2024 is at $173.5 billion, up $3 billion from May’s projection. This is mostly due in part to higher horticultural and grain sales. Agricultural imports are forecast at $204 billion, up $1.5 billion from May’s projection as the U.S. economy continues to strengthen.
Export forecasts for fiscal year 2025 are downsized at $169.5 billion, while import forecasts are at $212 billion, up $8 billion than the revised fiscal year 2024 estimate. If realized, this creates an astounding deficit with a trade balance of -$42.5 billion. (Read: U.S. dairy exports struggle as May slips 5%)
The U.S. dollar is expected to continue to appreciate by 2.2% against other currencies, fueling the downward pressure on U.S. exports. In 2025, that pressure alleviates some with an estimated 0.8% against other currencies. Surging ocean freight rates are also impacting trade for containerized high-value agricultural products, which make up many U.S. agricultural imports.
