The USDA’s monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released Nov. 8.
Milk production, prices
The milk production forecast for 2024 is raised from last month. Based on the most recent Milk Production report, lower reported milk cow numbers for the third quarter of 2024 were more than offset by higher output per cow. The milk forecast for 2025 is unchanged.
- At 226 billion pounds, the 2024 production estimate was raised 200 million pounds from last month’s report and would be 400 million pounds less than the 2023 total of 226.4 billion pounds.
For 2024, the butter price forecast is reduced as prices have continued to fall from the relatively high levels they maintained for much of the year through late September. The cheese price forecast for 2024 is unchanged, and both nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey price forecasts are raised due to strong demand for both sets of products. As a result, the Class III milk price is now forecast at $19.05 per hundredweight (cwt), and the Class IV price is projected at $20.75 per cwt. The all-milk price forecast is lowered a nickel to $22.75 per cwt.
- In its forecast for 2025, the USDA estimated milk production at 227.7 billion pounds, unchanged from last month’s report but 1.7 billion pounds more than 2024’s revised forecast.
For 2025, projected butter price forecasts were lowered due to relatively higher inventories heading into the 2024 holiday season. The cheese price forecast is raised, based on higher prices and tight inventories in late 2024. Whey and NDM price forecasts for 2025 are both raised based on stronger domestic and international demand. As a result, next year’s Class III milk price is forecast at $19.30 per cwt, and the Class IV price is projected at $20.30 cwt. The 2025 all-milk price is raised a dime to $22.85 per cwt.
Beef outlook
For 2024, the beef production forecast is raised as higher dressed weights and cow slaughter more than offset lower expected steer and heifer slaughter.
Looking ahead to 2025, beef production is raised due to heavier expected dressed weights and higher expected steer and heifer slaughter, partially stemming from higher than previously expected placements during the second half of 2024. As these cattle are placed on feed in the first half of the year, they will likely be marketed and slaughtered in the second half.
For 2024, cattle price forecast for the fourth quarter is raised based on recent prices and the continued strength in beef demand. The price strength is expected to carry into the first quarter of 2025. The fed cattle price forecast for 2024 was estimated at $186.68 per cwt, with prices averaging $188 per cwt in the fourth quarter. The 2023 average was $175.54 per cwt.
Feed supply, price forecasts
The USDA’s WASDE and Crop Production reports provided potential insights into dairy feedstuff supplies and prices:
- Corn: This month’s WASDE 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook called for lower production and reduced ending stocks.
Corn production for 2024-25 is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels and is down 60 million bushels from last month’s forecast. Although down 1% from 2023, if realized would be the third-highest production for grain on record for the U.S.
Based on conditions as of Nov. 1, the yields are expected to average a record-high 183.1 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushel from last month’s projection and up 5.8 bushels from last year’s final estimate of 177.3 bushels. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 82.7 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 4% from the previous year.
At $4.10 per bushel, the projected season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged from the October forecast and is down 45 cents from the 2023-24 average of $4.55 per bushel.
- Soybeans: This month’s 2024-25 U.S. soybean forecasts include lower production, exports, crush and ending stocks.
Looking at this year’s harvest, soybean production is projected at 4.46 billion bushels, down 3% from last month’s estimate but up 7% from 2023. Harvested area, forecast at 86.3 million acres, is unchanged from the previous month’s forecast but up 5% from last year.
Based on conditions as of Nov. 1, yields are expected to average 51.7 bushels per acre, down 1.4 bushels from last month but up 1.1 bushels from 2023. The 2024-25 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.80 per bushel, unchanged from last month and down $1.60 from the average price of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24. Projected soybean meal prices were also unchanged at $320 per short ton, down about $65 from the 2023-24 average of $385 per ton and $132 less than the 2022-23 average of $452 per ton.
- Cottonseed: As a predictor of cottonseed availability, the news is mixed. The 2024-25 harvested cotton acreage was forecast at 8.63 million acres, unchanged from last month and up 34% from 2023-24. However, cotton production is reduced to 14.2 million 480-pound bales, slightly down from last month’s forecast but up 18% from 2023. Based on conditions as of Nov. 1, yields are expected to average 789 pounds per harvested acre, unchanged from the previous forecast and down 110 pounds from 2023.
As a result, USDA’s November Crop Production report adjusted the cottonseed harvest to 4.335 million tons, down from last month’s estimate but up about 17% from 2023. September U.S. cottonseed prices averaged $229 per ton, up $3 from August but $13 less than September 2023.
Alfalfa and other hay
The latest USDA Ag Prices report indicated dairy-quality alfalfa hay prices averaged $227 per ton in September, while all alfalfa hay prices averaged $161 per ton, and prices for other hay averaged $140 per ton.
