Following a striking 7% year-over-year gain in the third quarter of 2024, fourth quarter is looking less impressive as data revealed a 9% fall in milk solid equivalents in November 2024, the second consecutive month of fewer exports. The sharp drop in October and November after a strong third quarter embodies the roller coaster of 2024. Here’s Progressive Dairy's 30,000-foot view of dairy-related export categories.
Cheese remains strong as prices create headwinds for exports
U.S. dairy export volume fell 9% year-over-year in milk solid equivalents in November as nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NFDM/SMP) and low-protein whey shipments fell considerably, while global dairy commodity prices rose to the highest level in more than a year. Such shortfalls put year-to-date milk solid equivalent volume in the red, as explained in the U.S. Dairy Export Council’s (USDEC) monthly market update.
As U.S. dairy exports for 2024 were down 0.3% through November compared to the same period in 2023, cheese once again remained a bright spot for the month. In November, the product posted its 11th consecutive year-over-year increase at 928 metric tons (up 2%). Albeit the smallest recorded this year, November cheese export volume (39,503 metric tons) remained on par with the average monthly volume of June through October (40,197 metric tons).
Latin America continued leading the U.S. cheese export gains with Central America (up 26%), Mexico (up 6%), South America (up 17%) and the Caribbean (up 6%) being major purchasers. Sales to South Korea, China and the United Arab Emirates were the only markets where sales did not improve in November.
Conversely, as cheese sales boomed with major buyers, NFDM/SMP shipments hit a record low for the year at 54,100 metric tons. The decline came from nearly every major purchaser, including Southeast Asia (down 43%), Mexico (down 6%), South America (down 28%) and the Middle East-North Africa (down 34%). Low-protein whey posted its second consecutive monthly double-digit decline, down 11%. The falling sales of low-protein whey came mostly from China (down 24%), suggesting stiff competition from other international suppliers as U.S. prices have remained elevated for most of 2024.
Despite lackluster U.S. dairy product export volume in November, value for the month rose 10% to $691.5 million. Year-to-date U.S. dairy export volume through November was up 2% to $7.62 billion.
CWT-assisted sales reach 183 million pounds in 2024
In the latest report from Cooperatives Working Together (CWT), member cooperatives added 57.2 million pounds of product to CWT-assisted sales in 2024 from 179 contracts secured in December. Those are the equivalent of 515.2 million pounds on a milkfat basis and will go to customers in Asia, Oceania, Middle East-North Africa, Central America, the Caribbean and South America through June 2025.
CWT-assisted sales in 2024 in milk equivalent totaled 1.674 billion pounds on a milkfat basis, or nearly 183.6 million pounds on a product volume basis.
The amount of dairy products and related milk volumes reflect current contracts for delivery, not completed export volumes. CWT pays export assistance to bidders only when export and delivery of the product is verified by required documentation.
CWT provides a means to move domestic products overseas by helping overcome trade disadvantages. The program suspended intake of new bids beginning in January pending program renewal with a vote in March.
Dairy heifer sales remain steady, embryo exports grow
In November, U.S. dairy heifer replacement exports grew modestly with additional purchases from Qatar. The month’s exports were up 32% month over month with Qatar more than doubling the animal unit purchases from 116 in October to 316 in November. The rise in exports came despite Canada purchasing 40% less animal units and Mexico not purchasing any during the month of November, the first time sales have been null since August.
November’s value of U.S. dairy heifer replacement exports brings the year-to-date total to 13,159 animal units.
Exports of U.S. dairy embryos nearly doubled, rising 86% from October to November 2024. In total, embryo sales were at 641 units for the month with major purchasers being South Korea (266), China (149) and Germany (126). Other buyers supporting the market to lesser degrees were Costa Rica, New Zealand, Australia and France.
While dairy embryo sales were stronger in November than a month prior, they fell short during the same month in 2023 (down 31%). November’s exports bring the total year-to-date sales of U.S. dairy cattle embryos to 5,266.
Hay exports fall in November
Dairy-quality alfalfa hay exports fell slightly at 1% in November for a total of 165,947 metric tons exported. China remained the top purchaser and increased U.S. alfalfa hay imports by 28% from October to November for a monthly total of 79,213 metric tons. With Qatar’s purchase of U.S. dairy heifer replacements, the country also increased their hay purchases and posted the largest month-over-month increase from 26 to 1,402 metric tons.
The month’s weakened alfalfa hay sales were largely due to Saudi Arabia’s and United Arab Emirates’ decline in purchases. The countries imported 34% and 58% less alfalfa hay in November compared to October, respectively.
In total, November’s dairy-quality hay exports added to year-to-date sales of 1,967,742 metric tons.
Japan and South Korea led in volume as importers in the U.S. other hay category, despite also posting declines of purchases on a percentage basis, leading to a total decline of 10% for other hay exports in November. Japan purchased 10% less hay in November compared to October (43,983 metric tons), while South Korea imported 6% less than a month prior for a total of 23,027 metric tons.
November’s total U.S. other hay exports were 79,986 metric tons, contributing to a year-to-date volume of 963,269 metric tons.
Trade balance narrows in 11th month of the year
November’s U.S. agricultural trade balance narrowed, showing some reprieve from a year with a larger deficit. The Department of Commerce/Census Bureau estimated November exports at $17.392 billion and imports at $18.508 billion for a trade balance deficit of $1.116 billion. This same month in 2023 posted a surplus of $163.9 million.
The fiscal year-to-date (Oct. 1, 2024, to Sept. 30, 2025) balance is a deficit of $3.61 billion.
