Prices for U.S. replacement dairy cows continued to climb entering the first quarter of 2025, hitting a new record-breaking high in January, according to latest quarterly estimates from the USDA. Meanwhile, average cull cow prices declined slightly in December but still kept yearly average prices at record highs.
U.S. replacement dairy cow prices averaged $2,660 per head in January 2025, up $60 (2%) from October 2024 and up $770 (29%) from January 2024.
The USDA estimates are based on quarterly surveys (January, April, July and October) of dairy farmers in 24 major dairy states, as well as an annual survey (February) in all states. The prices reflect those paid or received for cows that have had at least one calf and are sold for replacement purposes, not as cull cows. The report does not summarize auction market prices.
Quarterly average prices for replacement cow prices were up in 15 of 24 major dairy states (Table 1). Largest increases were in New Mexico ($400), Arizona ($300), Vermont ($290) and Virginia ($200). Average prices were unchanged in Kansas and Oregon, and slightly lower in Indiana, Texas and Michigan.
Compared to a year earlier, January replacement cow prices were up $980 in Vermont, $950 in Oregon and $900 in Washington. Increases of $860 to $830 per head in occurred in New York, California, Texas and Iowa.
Cow numbers inch higher but dairy heifer numbers drop
Among factors driving replacement cow and heifer prices higher, as dairy producers continue to crossbreed part of their herds to beef, the balance of dairy replacements available to join the milking herd is shrinking.
Based on the USDA’s semiannual Cattle report, the U.S. dairy herd started 2025 at about 9.349 million head, up about 2,500 head from a year earlier.
However, the same report estimated the number of dairy heifers (over 500 pounds) in the U.S. at about 3.914 million head, down about 39,900 from a year ago. That puts the number of heifers over 500 pounds at about 41.9 head per 100 milk cows. Of that total, just under 2.5 million head are expected to calve in 2025, or 26.7 per 100 milk cows. Both are the lowest in decades.
The trend is similar among 24 major dairy states based on preliminary December 2024 cow estimates in the USDA’s Milk Production report; cow numbers were estimated at 8.911 million head, also up 17,000 from a year earlier.
Read also: Milk production stayed on downward slope to end 2024
Market cow prices stay strong
With a month lag in reporting data, the USDA’s Ag Prices report indicated U.S. average prices received for cull cows (beef and dairy, combined) in December 2024 averaged $121 per hundredweight (cwt), down $13 from November and down $21 from peaks in July and August. However, the annual average price of $127 per cwt is the highest on record.
Latest USDA data, released Jan. 23, showed the number of dairy cull cows marketed through U.S. slaughter plants in December 2024 was 224,500 head, up 14,200 from November and 200 fewer than December 2023. Year-to-date slaughter was estimated at 2.7 million head, down 350,900 from the same period a year ago and the lowest 11-month total since 2008.
