Notable declines in both December and fourth-quarter year-over-year U.S. dairy export volumes at 1.9% and 5%, respectively, brought 2024 to a close. While falls in nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NFDM/SMP) were mostly to blame, there was still enough to celebrate in 2024 as export value rose to its second-highest value ever, and cheese exports in December posted their 12th consecutive year-over-year gain. Here’s Progressive Dairy’s 30,000-foot look at dairy-related export categories.
December exports stumble, but 2024 concludes milestone year
As cheese exports pushed the calendar-year cheese volume past 500,000 metric tons for the first time, it was the lack of NFDM/SMP exports that pulled on the reins of U.S. dairy export volume in December, as explained in the U.S. Dairy Export Council’s (USDEC) monthly market update.
Weaker production and lesser sales to Southeast Asia were the main faults of NFDM/SMP exports in December. Year-over-year volume plunged 23% (14,992 metric tons) to 49,565 metric tons, the first time monthly sales fell below 50,000 metric tons since July 2019. For all of 2024, U.S. NFDM/SMP exports declined 8%.
On the bright side, cheese suppliers finished a banner year with a record 43,846 metric tons exported in December. This contributed to a total of 508,808 metric tons exported in 2024, an impressive 17% improvement year over year and the first time U.S. cheese exports exceeded 500,000 metric tons in a single year. Throughout 2024, the U.S. positioned itself in the global market as a leading cheese supplier as competitive prices, hearty supplies and strong demand kept product moving throughout the market.
Total U.S. dairy exports reached $8.2 billion in 2024. Not only was the value up 2% ($202 million) from 2023, but it marked 2024 as a record year for U.S. dairy exports. Only once before have exports surpassed this level, and that was in 2022 with year-to-date U.S. dairy exports totaling $9.7 billion.
“The U.S. dairy industry is ready to capitalize on a renewed trade agenda in 2025,” said Michael Dykes, president and CEO of the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) in a press release. “Consumers … around the world continue to demand more U.S. dairy because we provide an assortment of delicious, nutritious and affordable dairy products.”
In 2024, Canada and Mexico represented more than 40% of all U.S. dairy exports and imported record values of dairy at $1.14 billion and $2.47 billion, respectively, according to IDFA. Central America also became a valuable trade partner with many dairy product exports traveling to Costa Rica, Guatemala and El Salvador.
“Our industry is poised to become the world’s leading supplier of dairy products thanks to the resilience and innovation of the American dairy industry,” Dykes said. … “Overall, U.S. dairy exports are performing well, but we can do more. With new trade agreements that remove obstacles and increase market access, we wouldn’t just break records – we would redefine the global dairy landscape for decades to come.”
Both USDEC and IDFA recognize trade disputes may distort price or cause disruptions, but predict a prosperous year ahead. (Read: Trump imposes tariffs on dairy trading partners, Canada retaliates)
Dairy heifer, embryo sales slow in December
December U.S. dairy heifer replacement exports plummeted, with sales totaling less than half of what was purchased in November. In total, 179 animal units were exported in the last month of 2024 with three trade partners contributing to the sales, including Qatar (111), Mexico (40) and Canada (28). Both Qatar and Canada imported 65% less U.S. dairy heifer replacements compared to a month prior, while Mexico began importing again after making no purchases in November.
The year-to-date total of U.S. dairy heifer replacements settled at 13,338 animal units, about 29% less than in 2023 when exports totaled 18,775.
Likewise, U.S. dairy embryo exports were down 34% in December from November. In total, 421 embryos were sold to Bangladesh and China (both 113), Denmark (73), Argentina (52), Ireland (42), Japan (19) and Spain (9). While China was a major purchaser in December, exports to the country fell 34% month over month.
Year-to-date U.S. dairy embryo exports reached 5,687 units, a stark contrast to 2023’s total of 10,090 units. In 2023, China purchased 4,516 U.S. dairy embryos compared to 1,136 in 2024, yet this last year, China was the only trade partner to purchase more than 1,000 embryos.
Hay exports are mixed in December
Dairy-quality alfalfa hay exports continued its slow decline in December with a 3% fall from the month prior for a total of 160,619 metric tons exported. The largest purchaser was China at 80,069 metric tons, up 1% from November. Several trade partners purchased more on a percentage basis, with Indonesia and South Korea posting double-digits gains from November to December, and Mexico seeing a 230% increase in U.S. dairy-quality alfalfa hay imports over the same time period.
2024 concluded with 2.13 million metric tons of dairy-quality alfalfa hay exported. That’s about 3% less than 2023’s total export volume of 2.21 million metric tons.
The story of other hay exports is much different with exports rising 10% month over month in December to 87,863 metric tons. Leading purchasers included Japan and South Korea, making up nearly 80% of imports for the month. While Japan imported the most in the other hay category, purchases in December were down 3% to 42,655 metric tons as South Korea increased imports by 15% to 26,592 metric tons.
November’s total U.S. other hay exports contributed to a year-to-date volume of 1.05 million metric tons. The year-end total in 2024 surpasses 2023 volume by 55,384 metric tons.
Trade balance results in year-end deficit
December’s U.S. agricultural trade balance grew the deficit as 2024 came to a close. The Department of Commerce/Census Bureau estimated December exports at $16.15 billion and imports at $18.27 billion for a trade balance deficit of $2.12 billion. December’s trade deficit contributed to a year of consecutive deficits month after month.
The fiscal year-to-date (Oct. 1, 2024, to Sept. 30, 2025) balance is a deficit of $5.73 billion.
CWT suspends intake until March
Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) provides a means to move domestic products overseas by helping overcome trade disadvantages. The program suspended intake of new bids beginning in January pending program renewal with a vote in March.
