The USDA’s monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released Feb. 11.

Schmitz audrey
Audrey Schmitz
Editor / Progressive Dairy

Milk production, prices

The milk production forecast for 2024 was adjusted to reflect December domestic and trade data. The 2025 production forecast is reduced due to lower expected cow inventories.

Milk and dairy product price forecasts reflect the updated price formulas of the Federal Milk Marketing Order, as published in the Federal Register on Jan. 17, by the Agricultural Marketing Service. Almost all the changes do not become effective until June 1.

  • At 225.9 billion pounds, the 2024 production estimate was raised 100 million pounds from last month’s report and would be 500 million pounds less than the 2023 total of 226.4 billion pounds.

For 2024, prices for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey were adjusted to reflect reported prices. As a result, the Class III milk price forecast is unchanged at $18.89 per hundredweight (cwt), and the Class IV price is unchanged at $20.75 per cwt. The all-milk price estimate is raised a penny to $22.61 per cwt.

  • In its forecast for 2025, the USDA estimated milk production at 226.9 billion pounds, lowered 300 million pounds from last month’s report.

Butter, NDM and whey prices for 2025 are all lowered based on recent prices. The cheese price is raised on recent prices and tight inventories from 2024 that are expected to carry into 2025. As a result, the Class III milk price is lowered to $19.10 per cwt, and the Class IV price is also lowered to $19.70 per cwt. The 2025 all-milk price is lowered 45 cents to $22.60 per cwt.

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Beef outlook

For 2025, the beef production forecast is raised from last month. On Feb. 1, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) announced the resumption of cattle imports from Mexico through approved facilities and newly implemented protocols to mitigate the spread of New World screwworm. Additionally, the USDA’s January Cattle report estimated a larger calf crop for 2024 and a smaller decline in cattle outside feedlots than previously expected. As a result, higher placements are expected for the year and slaughter is raised, primarily in the second half of the year.

Fed cattle price forecasts were raised for all four quarters on recent prices and continued strong beef demand. The 2024 average price is estimated to be $187.12 per cwt, with prices averaging $189.75 per cwt in the fourth quarter. If realized, the 2024 average would be up about $12.25 from the 2023 average of $175.54 per cwt. The 2025 average is now forecast at $201 per cwt, with highest prices in the first quarter of the year.

Feed supply, price forecasts

The USDA’s WASDE report provided potential insights into dairy feedstuff supplies and prices.

  • Corn: This month’s WASDE 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from last month.

At $4.35 per bushel, the projected season-average corn price received by producers was raised 10 cents from the January forecast but is down 20 cents from the 2023-24 average of $4.55 per bushel.

  • Soybeans: This month’s 2024-25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections were unchanged from last month.

The 2024-25 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.10 per bushel, down 10 cents from last month and down $2.30 from the average price of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24. Projected soybean meal prices were unchanged at $310 per short ton, down about $75 from the 2023-24 average of $385 per ton and $142 less than the 2022-23 average of $452 per ton.

  • Cottonseed: As a predictor of cottonseed availability, cotton production is raised to 14.41 million 480-pound bales, as the national all-cotton yield estimate is unchanged at 836 pounds per harvested acre, reflecting a larger crop and lower harvested area. Cottonseed production in 2024 was estimated at 4.4 million tons, up about 750,000 tons (21%) from 2023. December cottonseed prices averaged $224, up $3 from November and $15 more than December 2023.

Alfalfa and other hay

The latest USDA Ag Prices report indicated dairy-quality alfalfa hay prices averaged $230 per ton in December, while alfalfa hay prices averaged $164 per ton and prices for other hay averaged $145 per ton.