After the severe disruptions in the first half of the year, expectations for meat trade have been revised, and there is more uncertainty about global meat markets going forward.
Pork exports through June are up 27.4% year over year, led by a 335.6% year-over-year increase in pork exports to China. China has replaced Mexico as the top pork export destination, with Mexico down 2.8% for the year to date. No. 3 pork export market Japan is up 2.8% so far in 2020 following a 23.2% year-over-year decrease in June.
Broiler exports are up 4.2% year over year thus far in 2020, with latest data for June showing a 1.1% decrease from one year ago. Mexico remains the largest broiler export market, with year-to-date exports up 2% following a 6% year-over-year decrease in June. China is the second-largest broiler export market, accounting for 7.6% of total broiler for the first half of 2020. The sum of broiler exports to China and Hong Kong, a better measure of total broiler demand in China, is up 173.5% year over year in the January-June period.
Year-to-date beef exports are down 7.6% for the January-June period, following a 33% year-over-year drop in June and a similar decrease in May. Japan remains the largest U.S. beef export market and is up 5.6% year over year in the first half of 2020. However, this follows a 20.7% decrease in June and a 23.6% year-over-year decrease in May. No. 2 South Korea is down 7.4% year over year through June following double-digit monthly decreases in April, May and June. Mexico, the No. 3 market in recent years, has seen monthly decreases averaging 66.9% in the second quarter, dropping Mexico to the fourth-largest beef export market with a year-to-date total down 37.7% from one year ago. Canada, currently the third-largest beef export market, is up 12% in the first half of the year. China remains a small beef export market (1.4% of total exports this year) but is up 70.9% for the year to date. Hong Kong is down 8% so far this year, and the combined total of China and Hong Kong is up 0.2% for the year to date.
With a weaker global economic situation, meat trade forecasts have been revised. Total pork and broiler exports are still projected higher year over year, but beef exports are now projected to be lower year over year. China will continue to be a major driver of global protein trade, especially pork. Mexico remains a major concern with dramatic economic weakness expected to continue. Four of the five largest beef exports markets dropped sharply in the second quarter and will be watched closely for recovery in the second half of the year. China will remain a minor beef export market in 2020 but is likely to continue growing, barring major geopolitical disruptions. 
This originally appeared in the Aug. 17, 2020, OSU Cow/Calf Corner newsletter.
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Derrell S. Peel
- Livestock Marketing Specialist
- Oklahoma State University Extension
