Can you believe it’s already January? We are getting just a little more daylight each day, and before long it will be noticeable. Depending on just where you are located, we could start to see spring work begin in another 90 days or so. Right now would be a great time to take a good long look at your marketing plan for the 2023 crop.
A great deal could take place between now and harvest. This spring, I’m sure we will trade a weather market. It will either be too wet, too dry, too hot or too cold. Even when it looks as though conditions are perfect, we know from experience it won’t last long. The cash prices will move during these weather-related markets (in both directions). Just look back at the spring of 2022.
There are some things we may control, but there are far more we don’t. Take, for instance, the local basketball team. The coach doesn’t have any control over how tall or short the players are or how fast or quick they may be. All he or she can do is take what they have been blessed with and make adjustments so the team has the opportunity to do the very best they can. They not only make adjustments during the season but also right when they are in the heat of the battle. The same can be said for you in your specific operation.
Let’s put together a marketing plan for you, and let’s say the local news changes (or even nationally or globally). Does this give you the opportunity to make adjustments? The answer is a definite yes, and often there will be opportunities, and without a doubt the timing won’t be convenient.
There are a number of things going on every day in our lives, and we just can’t change that for the most part. However, all of us can take steps to simplify our lives just a little. Let’s look at marketing and just what it takes. We have a plan, which is a guide for us to follow. Part of that plan is to get the fall work done, and then I’ll have the time to sit down and see just where the market is and what it is doing.
This is very good; however, do you remember what happened on Oct. 31? Well, let me refresh your memory. Over the weekend, tensions between Russia and Ukraine tightened, and on that Monday morning the futures rallied. Within two days, the Chicago December contract had rallied 73 cents. How many were able to take advantage of this move in the market? The answer is: Everyone was able, but not all did. Some looked at the markets that morning and adjusted their game plan and contracted wheat. Others were busy in the heat of the battle and didn’t know it even happened, while some knew what had taken place and simply said, “Well, it looks like the market is moving in the right direction.”
Well, the following two days the market traded 62 cents lower and then continued that trend into Thanksgiving. Now, I know hindsight makes it easy to see what should have taken place, and my intentions aren’t to necessarily do that. My intentions are to show us all that the markets can, and do, move very quickly – and the more volatile they are, the more opportunities we all have, but we need to be ready. I remember years ago telephoning producers and giving them the bids, and they would usually ask, "How long is this bid good for?" And my answer would be: "As long as we are on the phone."
When the markets are willing to give us the opportunities we need or are looking for, it will be important in the days, months and years ahead that we make those quick adjustments in our plan that could give us the opportunity to be profitable for the year. It is important also for us to remember that just like the local basketball team, your operation isn’t like the farm next door. You have your own players, your own game plan, and you will make your own adjustments.
When it comes to marketing, it isn’t “one-size-fits-all.”
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