The May Feed Outlook report shows U.S. feed grain production is projected to be lower than a year ago due to lower expected acreage in 2024-25. Although production is down, the supply of feed grain is projected to be above the 2023-24 level. Corn is driving the increase in feed grain stocks and overall supply, following a record production year in 2023-24. Larger supplies are expected to prompt greater feed grain use, and ending stocks are projected higher for 2024-25, at 56.4 million metric tons, up 2.3 million metric tons from the already large ending stocks estimated at the end of 2023-24.
2024-25 U.S. corn production is expected to be lower on reduced area
In 2024-25, the U.S. corn crop is projected 482 million bushels below the 2023-24 production level at 14,860 million bushels. The survey-based forecast from producers in the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (NASS) Prospective Plantings report indicates for corn planted acreage to be 90 million acres, down 4.6 million acres from 2023-24. Corn-harvested acreage is projected at 82.1 million acres, based on historical abandonment and use for silage. The U.S. corn yield for 2024-25 is forecast at 181 bushels per acre.
Plantings started and progressed well at the start of April in the western Corn Belt, and then slowed coming into May due to widespread storms. On the other hand, drier conditions in parts of the eastern Corn Belt allowed plantings to progress after a slow start in April. Plantings in the southern and eastern states have progressed at or above-average pace. These factors have allowed U.S. farmers to plant 36% of the intended U.S. corn crop acreage, as of the May 6, 2024, NASS Crop Progress report. The observed pace of plantings is 6% points below last year and 3% points below the last five-year average.
Thanks to an overall good start of plantings in April, 12% of the overall U.S. corn crop has emerged, versus 10% a year ago. Furthermore, the recent rains in the western Corn Belt have significantly helped soil moisture levels in needed areas and reduced the percentage of the crop under drought conditions, with 14% of the corn crop under drought conditions compared to 29% a year ago, according to the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board report Agriculture in Drought on May 9, 2024.
Predicted prices
Ultimately, ending stocks for the 2024-25 corn marketing year are projected to be 80 million bushels more than a year ago. For 2023-24, the season-average farm price for corn is estimated at $4.65 per bushel. This price is lowered 5 cents per bushel from the April WASDE report. With a larger stocks-to-use ratio projected, the 2024-25 season-average farm price is projected to be $4.40 per bushel, down 25 cents from last year.
Global coarse grain production is expected to grow in 2024-25
Global coarse grain production in 2024-25 is projected to reach 1,512.6 million tons, up 10.5 million tons from the previous year. Although U.S. coarse grain production in 2024-25 is expected to slip 11.1 million tons from 2023-24, foreign production is expected to increase by 21.6 million tons.
World corn area is projected 1% lower, with the largest reduction in the U.S., followed by sub-Saharan Africa and Argentina. The prospect of higher profit margins is expected to entice the U.S., Argentina and many other countries to shift area planted to oil crops in lieu of corn.
Find additional information on the USDA Feed Outlook report from May.
