The USDA’s monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released Aug. 12.
Milk production, prices
Milk production forecasts for both 2024 and 2025 are lowered from last month based on slower growth in milk output per cow and lower cow inventory numbers.
- At 226.3 billion pounds, the 2024 production estimate was lowered 600 million pounds from last month’s report and would be 100 million pounds less than the 2023 total of 226.4 billion pounds.
For 2024, cheese, whey and nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts are raised from the previous month on recent price strength, while the butter price forecast is lowered. The Class III milk price is now forecast at $18.40 per hundredweight (cwt) based on higher cheese and whey prices, and the Class IV price is projected at $20.80 per cwt as higher NDM prices more than offset the reduction in butter prices. The all-milk price forecast is raised a nickel to $22.30 per cwt.
- In its forecast for 2025, the USDA estimated milk production at 228.2 billion pounds, down 900 million pounds from last month’s report but 1.9 billion pounds more than 2024’s revised forecast.
For 2025, the price forecasts for cheese, butter, NDM and whey are all raised based on reduced milk production and continued firm demand domestically and in international markets. As a result of higher product prices, Class III milk price is forecast at $18.65 per cwt, and the Class IV price is projected at $20.95 cwt. The 2025 all-milk price is forecast at $22.75 per cwt.
Beef outlook
For 2024, the beef production forecast is raised on higher steer and heifer and cow slaughter, which more than offsets lighter dressed weights.
Looking ahead to 2025, beef production was lowered, reflecting reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the first quarter but is more than offset by higher slaughter for outlying quarters. As these cattle are placed on feed in the first half of the year, they will likely be marketed and slaughtered in the second half.
For 2024, cattle prices are raised for both the third and fourth quarters based on recent stronger-than-expected demand for fed cattle. This price strength is expected to carry into the first quarter of 2025. The fed cattle price forecast for 2024 was estimated at $188.11 per cwt, with prices reaching $190 per cwt in the fourth quarter. The 2023 average was $175.54 per cwt.
Feed supply, price forecasts
The USDA’s WASDE and Crop Production reports provided potential insights into dairy feedstuff supplies and prices:
- Corn: This month’s 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook called for larger supplies, greater domestic use, greater exports and smaller ending stocks.
Corn production for 2024-25 is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 47 million from last month as a 0.7-million-acre decline in harvested area is more than offset by an increase in yield. Although down 1% from 2023, if realized would be the third-highest production for grain on record for the U.S.
Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, the yield is forecast at a record-high 183.1 bushels per acre, and is 2.1 bushels higher than last month’s projection and up 5.8 bushels from last year’s final estimate of 177.3 bushels. Among the major producing states, yields are forecast above a year ago in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska and South Dakota. Yields in Ohio are forecast below a year ago.
At $4.20 per bushel, the projected season-average corn price received by producers was 10 cents lower from the July forecast and is down 45 cents from the 2023-24 average of $4.65 per bushel.
- Soybeans: This month’s 2024-25 U.S. soybean forecasts includes higher production, exports and ending stocks.
Soybean production is projected at 4.6 billion bushels, up 154 million on higher area and yield. Harvested area, forecast at 86.3 million acres, is up 1 million from July. Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, yields are expected to average a record high of 53.2 bushels per acre, up 1.2 bushels from last month and up 2.6 bushels from 2023. Soybean supplies for 2024-25 are projected at 4.9 billion bushels, up 11% from last year.
The 2024-25 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.80 per bushel, down 30 cents from last month and down $1.70 from the average price of $12.50 per bushel in 2023-24. Soybean meal prices were lowered to $320 per short ton, down $70 from the 2023-24 average of $390 per ton and $132 less than the 2022-23 average of $452 per ton.
- Cottonseed: As a predictor of cottonseed availability, 2024-25 harvested cotton acreage was forecast at 8.63 million acres, up more than 2.19 million acres and 34% from 2023-24.
Cotton production is decreased to 15.11 million 480-pound bales, up 25% and about 3 million bales from 2023-24. Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, yields are expected to average 840 pounds per harvested acre, down 59 pounds from 2023. That would yield 4.6 million tons of cottonseed, up from 3.64 million tons in 2023.
- Alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures: Production of alfalfa and alfalfa mixture dry hay for 2024 is forecast at 52.4 million tons, up 5% from 2023. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 3.35 tons per acre, up 0.16 ton from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 15.6 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report but down slightly from 2023.
- Other hay: Production of other hay is forecast at 74.5 million tons, up 8% from 2023. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is expected to average 2.07 tons per acre, up 0.22 ton from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 35.9 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report, but down 3% from 2023. A record-high yield is expected in Missouri.
The latest USDA Ag Prices report indicated dairy-quality alfalfa hay prices averaged $276 per ton in May, while all alfalfa hay prices averaged $202 per ton and prices for other hay averaged $154 per ton.
The spread between U.S. average alfalfa and other hay prices – at more than $100 per ton last May and June – was $48 per ton in May.
