The USDA’s monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released Sept. 12.
Milk production, prices
Milk production forecasts for both 2024 and 2025 are lowered from last month based on lower forecast cow inventories and slower growth rate of milk per cow for the remainder of 2024. The slower growth in milk output per cow is expected to carry over into 2025.
- At 225.9 billion pounds, the 2024 production estimate was lowered 400 million pounds from last month’s report and would be 500 million pounds less than the 2023 total of 226.4 billion pounds.
For 2024, price forecasts for cheese, butter, whey and nonfat dry milk (NDM) are all raised from the previous month based on strong recent price strength and lower milk production. As a result, the Class III milk price is now forecast at $19.45 per hundredweight (cwt), and the Class IV price is projected at $21 per cwt. The all-milk price forecast is raised 75 cents to $23.05 per cwt.
- In its forecast for 2025, the USDA estimated milk production at 227.9 billion pounds is down 300 million pounds from last month’s report but 2 billion pounds more than 2024’s revised forecast.
For 2025, tighter milk supplies and firm demand are expected to carry the higher price outlook with raised price forecasts for cheese, butter, NDM and whey. As a result, Class III milk price is forecast at $19.60 per cwt, and the Class IV price is projected at $21.20 cwt. The 2025 all-milk price is forecast at $23.45 per cwt.
Beef outlook
For 2024, the beef production forecast is raised on higher cow slaughter and heavier cattle weights in the second half of the year.
Looking ahead to 2025, beef production was raised on higher steer and heifer slaughter and heavier carcass weights. Steer and heifer slaughter in the first quarter is more than offset by higher slaughter for outlying quarters. As these cattle are placed on feed in the first half of the year, they will likely be marketed and slaughtered in the second half.
For 2024, cattle prices are lowered for the second half of 2024 based on recent prices. These lowered prices are expected to carry into 2025. The fed cattle price forecast for 2024 was estimated at $185.11 per cwt, with prices averaging $183 per cwt in the fourth quarter. The 2023 average was $175.54 per cwt.
Feed supply, price forecasts
The USDA’s WASDE and Crop Production reports provided potential insights into dairy feedstuff supplies and prices:
- Corn: Despite an increase in production, this month’s WASDE 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook called for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks due to lower beginning stocks, fueled by increases in exports and corn used for ethanol in 2023-24.
Corn production for 2024-25 is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels and is up 1 million from last month. Although down 1% from 2023, if realized, it would be the third-highest production for grain on record for the U.S.
Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, the yield is forecast at a record-high 183.6 bushels per acre, which is 0.5 bushels higher than last month’s projection and up 6.3 bushels from last year’s final estimate of 177.3 bushels. Record-high yields are forecast in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nebraska, New York, South Dakota and Wisconsin.
At $4.10 per bushel, the projected season-average corn price received by producers was 10 cents lower from the August forecast and is down 55 cents from the 2023-24 average of $4.65 per bushel.
- Soybeans: This month’s 2024-25 U.S. soybean forecasts includes lower beginning stocks, production and ending stocks.
Soybean production is projected at a record-high 4.59 billion bushels, down slightly from last month’s estimate but up 10% from 2023. Harvested area, forecast at 86.3 million acres, is unchanged from the previous month’s forecast but up 5% from last year.
Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, yields are expected to average a record high of 53.2 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month and up 2.6 bushels from 2023. If realized, this would be the highest yield on record for the U.S.
The 2024-25 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.80 per bushel, unchanged from last month and down $1.70 from the average price of $12.50 per bushel in 2023-24. Projected soybean meal prices were also unchanged at $320 per short ton, down $65 from the 2023-24 average of $385 per ton and $132 less than the 2022-23 average of $452 per ton.
- Cottonseed: As a predictor of cottonseed availability, the news is mixed. The 2024-25 harvested cotton acreage was forecast at 8.63 million acres, up more than 2.19 million acres and 34% from 2023-24. However, cotton production is reduced to 14.5 million 480-pound bales, down 4% from last month’s forecast. Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, yields are expected to average 807 pounds per harvested acre, down 33 pounds from the previous forecast and down 92 pounds from 2023.
As a result, USDA’s September Crop Production report adjusted the cottonseed harvest to 4.425 million tons, down from last month but up about 21% from 2023.
Hay production estimates were not updated in the latest Crop Production report. The latest USDA Ag Prices report indicated dairy-quality alfalfa hay prices averaged $237 per ton in July, while all alfalfa hay prices averaged $170 per ton and prices for other hay averaged $145 per ton.
