The decline in U.S. dairy exports slowed, but economic factors continue to challenge U.S. suppliers.

May-July U.S. agriculture trade deficit is likely the largest in history.

There are limited expectations for an improved outlook for dairy product exports in the third quarter and lasting through the end of 2023.

On a milk solids equivalent, March 2023 dairy product exports fell below the same month a year earlier, ending an 11-month streak of year-over-year gain.

As the weather warms up, the demand for hay is also warming. While producers anxiously await the ability to turn cattle out to graze, the slow exit of winter weather is demanding more hay to be bought.

While still historically low, February 2023 exports of most U.S. hay products rebounded slightly from January.

A slight increase in hay acreage and yield-boosting moisture conditions in some regions provide hope for increased forage production in 2023.

Moisture conditions are improving, but hay exports and milk prices are weakening, with a likely impact on demand.