Heifers remain a significant part of fed cattle population, indicating producers are not yet rebuilding herds.

Recent record prices paid for fed cattle, feeder cattle, and cull cows and bulls have a lot of industry folks talking and thinking we are at the bottom of the “10-year cattle cycle” and that we could see expansion in the future.

Join the whole Progressive Cattle crew – David, Paul, Tyrell, Carrie and Abby – as they enjoy the Cassia County Fair in southern Idaho. They speak with Ryan Udy about the experiences of being a junior exhibitor at the county fair and all the fun that comes with it. Abby also interviews Elliott Dennis, from University of Nebraska – Lincoln, as they compare the cattle market in 2024 versus 2014 and discuss how producers can make the decision to cull, maintain or expand this fall.

Cow-calf producers are expected to make $709 per cow over cash costs, including pasture, in 2024. These levels are nearly identical to the inflation-adjusted highs experienced by producers in 2014 ($534 in 2014 dollars, $708 in 2024 dollars).

With parts of the country battling their way back from drought and U.S. cattle numbers reaching historic lows over the last few years, it’s reasonable to ask when producers are going to start rebuilding their herds.

Investing in replacement heifers without financially stressing the ranch is every beef producer’s goal. They must consider risks facing the operation, manage their financial health and discover additional income streams the ranch provides.

For those who see the opportunity to expand, if they use their data and invest where they get the biggest return, they stand the highest chance of success. Will the beef cow herd continue to shrink, or will we see some expansion? Only time will tell.

Over the next few years as the cattle herd builds back, cull cow prices and all beef prices will rise as the U.S. cycles into tighter supplies, giving more market leverage to the producer.

With drought plaguing much of the West and herd dispersals happening in affected areas, the industry is posed for a possible repeat. “So, let’s make sure we’re learning from the past,” Ross Bronson told viewers in a webinar hosted by Redd Summit Advisors.

So you’ve gotten a few years of producing cattle under your belt and are feeling pretty good about the future.