Milk futures remain high as feed costs drop to levels last seen in 2020, yet other market pressures such as lower butter and cheese prices and waning holiday demand, as well as recent milk production reports revealing gains for the first time in more than a year, complicate the matter.

U.S. milk production was down 3.9% in September compared to a month prior, according to the USDA’s September Milk Production report released Oct. 21. Production was up 0.1% year over year, while third quarterly estimates (July-September) were also up slightly from the same time in 2023.

The USDA’s World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report offers forecasts for dairy, beef and feedstuffs.

August’s slight rise in U.S. dairy export volume positions year-to-date export volume growth at 0.1%, the first time in all of 2024 where volumes have surpassed the no-growth threshold.

In the Economic Update, we look at the expiration of the 2018 Farm Bill, the latest GDT trade event results, FSA interest rates for October and a weakening farmer sentiment.