High summer culling rates are helping kick off better milk prices this fall.

On Aug. 23, 2023, Dana Coale, deputy administrator of the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Dairy Program, and presiding Judge Channing D. Strother, USDA chief administrative law judge, welcomed industry representatives, USDA staff and other attendees to the first day of the National Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) Pricing Formula Hearing and provided an overview of the hearing process.

Here’s Progressive Dairy’s monthly review of the numbers to provide some additional transparency to your milk check.

Reductions in cow numbers and weaker average milk output per cow contributed to a decline in U.S. and major state milk production in July, the first year-over-year decline since June 2021-22.

Despite a better outlook for milk prices, corn and soybean meal price projections were also raised.

Farm lending activity at commercial banks slowed through the first half of 2023 as interest rates continued to push higher.

Like the previous month, milk checks for July production will reflect weak protein and Class III milk prices. The wide price spread between Class III-IV milk prices means Class IV depooling will remain heavy.

Milk producers in just 13 counties marketed 25% of the total Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) milk marketings in December 2022.

Despite weakening milk prices this summer, U.S. average prices for replacement cows moved higher, while strong beef prices continued to push market cow prices to an eight-year high.

DMC indemnity payments will surpass income margins for many dairy producers.