“We’re full.”
It’s a bumper sticker. It’s a hat. It’s a shirt. The odds of me seeing this slogan on a quick trip to Twin Falls is about as likely as getting zipped past by a California or Utah license plate heading that way on I-84 (if you know, you know).
The truth is: Idaho is growing. It has been one of the top five fastest-growing states in the nation since 2016. The outdoor opportunities, quality of life and economic development are some of Idaho’s most attractive qualities.
Idaho’s growth is often a focus of conversation to those who live here, but it seems to become even more so when an election year rolls around. Who are these people? Where are they coming from? Are they going to change Idaho? Or, in other words, what way will they vote?
Some of you might already be familiar with a relatively new resource the secretary of state’s office rolled out last year. It’s an interactive map that tracks where new Idahoans have moved from over the years, offering a clear picture of the migration trends shaping the state.
When talking with Idahoans, two common assumptions often come up: that most newcomers are from California and that they're bringing their blue-state politics with them. However, that’s not entirely the case.
According to the database, the majority of newcomers are overwhelmingly from California – almost three times as many as from any other state, with Oregon and Washington trailing behind. Interestingly enough, they are only making Idaho redder. Of the roughly 118,000 registered voters who have moved to the state, 65% are Republican, 21% unaffiliated and only 12% Democrat.
Pretty interesting, huh
While the fine print on the website does say this data is limited to registered voters as of Nov. 26, 2023, this does debunk some of the long-held assumptions about newcomers and their impact on Idaho’s political landscape. It could be that rather than shifting the state's political balance, these new arrivals are reinforcing Idaho's conservative leanings.
I first came across this data during a summer seminar where Idaho Secretary of State Phil McCrane spoke. He mentioned something interesting: People are "self-sorting" by moving to states that align with their political views, even if it means selling their homes and leaving behind where they grew up. McCrane described these individuals as "political refugees," saying they’ve reached a point where they no longer recognize their hometowns, become fed up and decide to move on.
As Idaho continues to grow, the conversation about who’s moving here and how they’ll shape the state remains a hot topic. For now, though, it seems newcomers are only strengthening Idaho’s already solid conservative base. So while you might see "We’re full" stickers everywhere, Idaho’s doors are still open – and the people moving in may not be who you’d expect.
The full map as well as other data can be found on the website.
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