April 2020 started a five-month slowdown in U.S. milk production growth as the industry struggled with market disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Such is not the case a year later. The USDA’s April Milk Production latest report was released on May 20, and the numbers are large.
April 2020-21 recap at a glance
Reviewing the USDA preliminary estimates for April 2021 compared to April 2020:
- U.S. milk production: 19.3 billion pounds, up 3.3%
- U.S. cow numbers: 9.49 million, up 113,000 head
- U.S. average milk per cow: 2,033 pounds, up 40 pounds
- 24-state milk production: 18.41 billion pounds, up 3.5%
- 24-state cow numbers: 8.976 million, up 121,000 head
- 24-state average milk per cow: 2,051 pounds, up 42 pounds
Source: USDA Milk Production report, May 20, 2021
The latest report also revised the March 2021 milk production estimate higher, adding another 30 million pounds (0.2%) to last month's preliminary estimate. That means March year-over-year production growth was 1.9%.
Cow numbers jump, slaughter slows
It sounds like a broken record, but dairy cow numbers continue to build on what is the largest U.S. dairy herd since the mid-1990s. Since bottoming out in June 2020, the nine-month growth spurt has added 142,000 cows in the 24 major dairy states and about 135,000 cows to the U.S. herd.
At 9.49 million, April 2021 U.S. cow numbers were up by 16,000 head from revised March numbers, which were also raised another 6,000 from last month’s preliminary report. In the 24 major dairy states, April 2021 cow numbers were up about 15,000 head from a month earlier; March 2021 cow numbers in those states were also revised 7,000 higher.
Compared to a year earlier (Table 1), April cow numbers were reported higher in 14 states and lower in nine states, with New York again unchanged.
Texas led all states in growth in cow numbers, up 29,000 head from the year before and 2,000 more than March. Six other states (Indiana, South Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Colorado) increased cow numbers by 11,000-19,000 from a year earlier. The USDA said Wisconsin cow numbers grew by 7,000 head between March and April.
The combined year-over-year growth in Texas, South Dakota, Indiana, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Colorado totaled 112,000 head. Arizona, Pennsylvania, Florida and Vermont showed the biggest drop from a year earlier, down a combined 25,000 head. California cow numbers were down 1,000 head.
After holding serve for most of early 2021, the pace of weekly dairy cull cow slaughter has slowed and now trails last year, according to weekly and monthly USDA Livestock Slaughter reports.
Through May 8, 2021, dairy cull cow slaughter at federally inspected plants was estimated at 1.21 million head, down about 17,700 head from the same period a year earlier despite a substantially larger dairy herd.
Milk per cow growth picks up
April 2021 growth in U.S. and major dairy state average milk output per cow increased about 1.3 pounds per day compared to a year ago (Table 2). California and Wisconsin boosted daily output by more than 2 pounds per cow per day to lead all states. Monthly production per cow was down in just two states: Washington and South Dakota.
Michigan maintained its spot atop the list, averaging 2,275 pounds of milk per cow during April.
Milk volume, percentages
California and Wisconsin led all states in year-over-year milk production growth on a volume basis in April. Combined with growth in Texas, the three states increased output about 356 million pounds. Production in Florida, Pennsylvania, Washington, Arizona and Vermont was down a combined 41 million pounds.
On a percentage basis, April 2021 output in South Dakota was up more than 13% from a year earlier, with Indiana up 11% and Texas up nearly 8%. Florida (-5%) again led decliners.
