Quarterly U.S. average prices for dairy replacement cows weakened slightly despite ongoing growth in the U.S. dairy herd, according to latest estimates from the USDA.
Nationally, quarterly U.S. replacement dairy cow prices averaged $1,310 per head in April 2021, down $50 from January 2021 but about $60 more than April 2020.
The U.S. average price was still 38% per head less than the latest peak of $2,120 per head in October 2014.
Compared to a year earlier, average prices were up in 11 of 24 major dairy states, down in 11 states and unchanged in two others (Table 1).
Latest USDA milk production reports indicate substantial year-to-year growth in cow numbers in Texas, South Dakota, Indiana, Minnesota and Michigan.
Despite that ongoing growth, quarterly prices were lower in Indiana, South Dakota and Texas and relatively flat in Michigan and Minnesota. Prices were up slightly in California, New Mexico and Virginia, even though the dairy herds there has been steady to shrinking.
On a quarterly basis, Ohio and Virginia saw the largest jump in replacement cow prices compared to January, up $70 per head. The biggest decline was in Georgia, down $80 per head. Highest January 2021 average prices were in Wisconsin at $1,490 per head, up $240 from a year ago; lowest average prices were in Georgia and Utah at $1,200 per head.
The USDA estimates are based on quarterly surveys (January, April, July and October) of dairy farmers in 24 major dairy states, as well as an annual survey (February) in all states. The prices reflect those paid or received for cows that have had at least one calf and are sold for replacement purposes, not as cull cows. The report does not summarize auction market prices.
Heifer prices tracked
Progressive Dairy’s Cattle Market Watch tracks dairy heifer prices from about 20 auction markets throughout the U.S., with price summaries updated about every two weeks. The listings cover top and medium springers, shortbred and open heifers, and heifer calves.
One market where competition for dairy replacement heifers is expected to weaken is in exports. After three strong months to end 2020 and start 2021, exports of U.S. dairy replacement heifers fell off sharply in March. The USDA estimated just 782 head were exported during the month, the lowest monthly total since last November. Tony Clayton, Clayton Agri-Marketing Inc., Jefferson City, Missouri, expects the slower trend to continue through the rest of the year.
Cull cow prices improve
Meanwhile, prices for cull cows improved for a third consecutive month in March (the USDA cull cow prices lag by a month compared to replacement cow prices). The March 2021 average was $67.20 per hundredweight, up more than $9 since December 2020.
