Undoubtedly, there are concerns. Per capita fluid milk consumption in the U.S. is down by a quarter in the past 20 years, and the number of U.S. dairy farms dropped 6.8% in 2018 alone.
Based on most recent annual USDA data, U.S. per capita consumption of fluid milk was estimated at 146 pounds in 2018, down 4 pounds from 2017 and down more than 50 pounds in the past two decades. U.S. per capita fluid milk consumption is now down more than 100 pounds since 1975, when it averaged 254 pounds. (The decline isn’t solely a U.S. phenomenon: Similar annual declines of 2% to 3% have been seen in western Europe, according to Rabobank. In contrast, developing markets, such as the Asia-Pacific region, have seen annual growth of 7% over the past decade.)
As a percentage of total U.S. dairy product consumption, fluid products have slipped from nearly 46% in 1975 to just over 22% in 2018.
However, says NMPF, no matter what critics may say, attempts to craft a “death of dairy” narrative are mistaken.
Even within the fluid milk category, there is some good news. Whole milk continues to be the bright spot, with total sales volume up for a fifth consecutive year. Total U.S. sales of whole milk topped 16 billion pounds for the first time since 2007. And, sales of flavored milk increased to a 13-year high in 2018.
Beyond fluid milk consumption, overall consumption of dairy products rose from the year before. Annual USDA data shows 2018 U.S. per capita consumption of dairy products (on a milk-equivalent, milkfat basis) increased 1 pound from the 2017’s revised estimate to 646 pounds. Per capita dairy product consumption has jumped 38 pounds in the past five years, from 608 pounds in 2013 to 646 pounds in 2018. (Check Progressive Dairy for details on U.S. dairy consumption later this year.) In fact, 2018 was the most popular year for dairy consumption in the U.S. since 1962.
Individual products tell similar stories. The milk equivalent of cheese consumption has been greater than fluid milk since the mid-1980s, and indications are 2018 U.S. cheese consumption (excluding cottage cheese) set another record high at almost 38 pounds. American cheese consumption rose to about 15.4 pounds per person, up 0.3 pounds, and consumption of other cheeses rose about 0.6 pounds to 22.5 pounds per person. Per capita cheese consumption has tripled since 1971 and has increased in 29 of the last 30 years.
Butter is at its highest per capita use since 1968. Per capita consumption of butter (5.8 pounds) rose 0.1 pound in 2018, unchanged from the year before. Contrast that with nose-diving sales of margarine, the longest-established “plant-based” dairy alternative, which in 2010 was at its lowest per capita consumption since 1942. After that, the federal government stopped tracking it altogether.
July fluid sales improve
There was also some good news concerning U.S. fluid milk in July: Monthly sales were up from the same month a year earlier. Albeit small, the sales volume increase was attributed to whole and flavored whole conventional milk and whole and reduced-fat organic milk.
- At 3.6 billion pounds, overall July 2019 sales of packaged conventional and organic fluid milk were up 0.2% compared to a year earlier. January-July 2019 sales were estimated at 26.6 billion pounds, down 1.8%.
- July sales of conventional products totaled 3.4 billion pounds, down 0.1% from the previous year. Year-to-date sales totaled 25.1 billion pounds, down 1.7%. In the conventional category, July sales of whole milk were up 3.6% at 1.27 billion pounds; year-to-date sales totaled 8.7 billion pounds, up 1.2%. At 439 million pounds, flavored whole milk sales were up more than 10%.
- July sales of organic products at 217 million pounds were up 4.6% from a year earlier. Year to date, organic sales totaled 1.45 billion pounds, down 3.3%. Organic products represented about 6% of total sales in July and 5.5% year to date.
The U.S. figures represent consumption of fluid milk products in federal milk order marketing (FMMO) areas and California (now a part of the FMMO system), which account for approximately 92% of total fluid milk sales in the U.S. Sales outlets include food stores, convenience stores, warehouse stores/wholesale clubs, nonfood stores, schools, the food service industry and home delivery.
Eighty-six percent of U.S. adults prefer dairy milk
Despite the market inroads made by alternatives, a national tracking poll of 2,200 Americans shows 86% of U.S. adults prefer dairy milk over “other” beverages, including plant-based beverages. And, a large margin of survey respondents want increased milk offerings in schools.
The online poll was conducted Aug. 16-18, 2019, by Morning Consult, a national survey firm, in partnership with the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA). Among other poll results:
- Ten percent prefer “other” beverages, a list that included plant-based beverages as well as lactose-free milk.
- Sixty-seven percent of adults across key demographics believe 2% and whole milk are the most nutritious types of milk.
- Forty-two percent of federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participants (336 of the 2,200 respondents) prefer whole milk for themselves or their families. SNAP participants also reported they believe whole milk is the most nutritious (46%), the only demographic to do so.
- Seventy-seven percent of adults found it important to have a variety of options to choose from when purchasing types of milk.
Additionally, by a margin of more than 2-1, U.S. adults say it’s important to offer low-fat flavored milks with school meals; just 22% say they believe it is unimportant; and 29% had no opinion. And, by a 3-1 margin, U.S. adults say it’s important to offer 2% and whole milk with school meals; 53% believe it is important that milks like 2% and whole are offered in schools; while just 18% feel it is unimportant. Currently, only low-fat 1% and skim milks are allowed in schools.
Study: Chocolate milk outperforms other sports drinks
In the first-ever field-based study of high school athletes recovering post-workout, chocolate milk outperformed a commercial sports drink by a net strength difference of 6.7%. The study was performed in 2018 and was initiated by Dairy MAX, a regional dairy council covering eight states, as part of research and science-based health initiatives.
The research, conducted in 2018 and published in the 2019 Journal of the International Society of Sports Nutrition, showed that high school athletes drinking chocolate milk lifted 3.5% more weight than before, while the adolescents drinking a commercial sports drink lifted 3.2% less than before.
Previous studies all looked at adults, but never at the nearly 8 million high school athletes in the nation – yet nutrition is especially important for these young athletes, whose bodies are still growing while also handling the heavy physical demands of athletics.
In 2018, the department of kinesiology and health education at the University of Texas – Austin studied 103 high school athletes, including a mix of varsity and junior varsity male and female athletes with an average age of 15. The students trained four times per week for five weeks, with both free weights and field agility drills. They were randomly placed into one of two groups: those who would drink chocolate milk as a recovery drink and those who would drink a leading sports beverage instead.
The carbohydrate-protein ratio in chocolate milk was shown to be more beneficial than carbohydrate-only sports drinks in improving athlete performance as part of a strength and speed training at a high school level.
Despite studies such as these, dairy continues to fight attempts to ban chocolate milk in schools. New York Farm Bureau's president, David Fisher, recently sent a letter to the New York City schools chancellor, Richard Carranza, asking him and city leaders to drop a proposed ban on chocolate milk in public schools.
The letter stresses the importance flavored milk has to an overall healthy diet for students, and it cites numerous studies that reveal the negative impacts that came about when other school districts issued similar bans. 
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Dave Natzke
- Editor
- Progressive Dairy
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