Through the first eight months of 2019, the Class I base price is $16.34 per cwt, up about $1.80 compared to the same period a year ago.
USDA outlook
The USDA released its monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report on July 17, forecasting slow growth in milk production and stronger domestic use which should maintain or reduce ending stocks. However, a slight downturn in exports is projected for 2019.
Based on May data, the USDA’s latest forecast for the size of the U.S. milking herd for 2019 has been raised to 9.34 million. (The USDA’s latest Milk Production report estimated May’s dairy herd at 9.333 million head. The June estimate will be released on July 22.) Based on recent milk yields and an expectation of higher feed costs, the milk-per-cow forecast for the year was lowered 10 pounds from last month to 23,365. The overall milk production forecast for 2019 is 218.2 billion pounds, unchanged from last month’s forecast and up less than 0.3% from 2018.
For 2020, the USDA projects the dairy herd to continue to grow. The forecast for the average annual size of the milking herd in 2020 is 9.355 million head. However, like 2019, higher feed costs are expected to cap growth in milk per cow and is expected to average about 23,710 pounds. As a result, the milk production forecast for 2020 is 221.8 billion pounds. In part due to an extra day to leap year, the agency forecasts 2020 milk production will rise 1.6% from 2019.
Only slight changes have been made in product and milk price forecasts for 2019 and 2020. Read: USDA raises 2019 milk price forecast slightly. 
-
Dave Natzke
- Editor
- Progressive Dairy
- Email Dave Natzke
