The NASS report estimated 2011 corn acreage at 92.178 million acres, about 0.34 million above pre-report trade estimates and almost 4 million acres higher than last year. While these acreage numbers looked promising to the livestock industry, all 2011 corn futures contracts increased the 30 cent per bushel limit after the report was released. On Friday, May corn surged upward another 42 3/4 cents with December climbing another 12 1/4 cents.
Prices actually increased due to another NASS report, Grain Stocks, which was also released on Thursday morning. NASS reported corn stocks in all positions on March 1 at 6.52 billion bushels, down 15 percent from a year ago and below pre-report trade expectations by about 170 million bushels. The December 2010 - February 2011 corn disappearance was 3.53 billion bushels, compared with 3.21 billion during the same period last year. So the report indicated that higher corn prices have done little to ration demand.

Corn prices will likely stay volatile due to the short stocks, the uncertainty of how many acres actually get planted, and subsequently, the potential for yields at harvest. For example, the 450,000 acre increase in prospective corn plantings in North Dakota and the 850,000 increase in South Dakota amount to 32.6 percent of the U.S. increase. As I look out my office window in Fargo, North Dakota, I still see lots of snow and very cool, wet conditions. Corn planting is likely several weeks away at best. And, of course, very dry conditions exist in the Southern Plains.

Not to be outdone, the live cattle futures market also continued to exhibit volatility. After closing down 65 cents per hundredweight on Monday, April live cattle futures closed higher on each consecutive day of the week to end at a contract high of $122.07 on Friday. end_mark

 

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-- This originally appeared on the Livestock Marketing Information Center newsletter.