Calling the ocean temperatures a “change in the decade of oscillation,” Douglas said cold water along the eastern Pacific rim, or the West Coast of the U.S., has been typically low since 1998. The Atlantic Ocean turned into a warm stage about four years earlier, starting in 1994.
Those patterns in the Pacific lasted through 2013. But the cycle is beginning to change.
“What we’re seeing is that cold water body along the West Coast has completely reversed itself. Likewise it’s become quite cold from Japan to the area north of Hawaii. And that big warm water in the north Atlantic has cooled immensely.”
Douglas said historical data recorded since 1900 show that when cooling occurs in surrounding ocean waters, weather turns milder and warmer. The warming of sea surface temperatures ushers in more precipitation and harsher conditions.
The past two years – 2014 and the start of 2015 – indicated “the Pacific has reversed and we’re back to a climate regime of about 1976 to 1997,” Douglas said.
So what kind of weather does this change portend? Douglas said the past 15 years are a good indicator of what will change and of what will come.
“In the Southwest, it was primarily because we had very poor winter rain seasons, including Texas,” he said. But now, “You can see a lot of that area has much more normal precipitation.
“For a period of almost 15 years, we had standard deviations on precipitation indicating we’re in the bottom one-third of all dry years for the last 100 years.”
“Now we have an ideal situation for those in the Midwest because it’s been wetter than normal all the way from the Dakotas to the Ohio Valley.
“The pattern you’re looking at now is going to completely reverse. We’re going to see cooler conditions in the Southwest, with improved precipitation. In the Upper Midwest, we’re going to see cooler and dryer conditions.”
For the 2015 outlook, Douglas said the Pacific’s water temperature with a gulf stream movement should provide good moisture, to at least the southwestern half of the country, but possibly to expanded regions.
Severe drought in areas of California and the West is gradually being broken, Douglas added. The Southern Plains don’t differ much from last year, when they saw decent rainfall.
“You can see the sea surface temperature pattern, with very warm water, all the way from Alaska to Hawaii. That’s wonderful insurance for preventing drought to spread through the Southwest U.S. or even into the Plains.” 
PHOTO
Art Douglas speaking at the 2015 NCBA Cattle Industry Convention in San Antonio. Photo by David Cooper.
