Beef sections of the 792-page report indicate an overall positive impact on U.S. beef exports and a moderate impact on U.S. beef imports.
Most of the positive impact on exports would come from a reduction in Japan’s tariffs on beef. Japan is currently the largest export market for U.S. beef, and Japan’s 38.5 percent tariffs on fresh and frozen beef cuts would be reduced to 9 percent over 16 years. TPP would also give U.S. beef producers market access parity with Australia, the largest supplier of imported beef in the Japanese beef market.
Chile, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam are also net beef importers, and lowering trade barriers would be expected to lead to an increase in U.S. exports to those countries as well.
While TPP would provide a net positive impact on exports, preferential access in certain markets for U.S. beef would be diminished. U.S. beef producers currently have preferential zero-duty access to the Canadian and Mexican markets, and this advantage would be eroded under the TPP as other TPP members, such as Australia and New Zealand, also gain zero-duty access.
The TPP is expected to have a more moderate impact on U.S. beef imports. Major beef exports among TPP member countries already have access to the U.S. market, and imports of beef from Canada and Mexico are duty-free under NAFTA.
The ITC analysis estimates overall U.S. beef exports would be about $876 million (8.4 percent) higher in 2032 if TPP were implemented in 2017 than if it were not implemented, with most of the increase in exports under TPP going to Japan.
At the same time, U.S. beef imports would increase, primarily from New Zealand, by an estimated $419 million (5.7 percent) over the baseline. 
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Dave Natzke
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