Why did China decide to lift the 13-year ban on U.S. beef exports?
Schuele: What we have from the regulatory agencies is just a short statement saying that the decision is based on the risk assessment that China’s Ministry of Agriculture has been conducting.
We don’t have much more to go on it than that. While it may seem like a sudden announcement, work has been done on this issue for several years.
Are there any conditions or restrictions attached with lifting the ban?
Schuele: Not written into a statement, no, but we do know there will be certain export requirements. The lifting of the ban is the first step, but negotiating and establishing the export requirements still needs to be done.
I would say, yes, it’s likely, but we don’t know yet what those conditions and restrictions will be.
Why was there a ban in the first place?
Schuele: China was one of many countries that closed its doors to U.S. beef following the December 2003 BSE [bovine spongiform encephalopathy] case. A lot of our international destinations closed at that time. China is really the only major market that never reopened.
What opportunities will the opening of Chinese markets bring for the U.S. beef industry?
Schuele: That’s hard to say until we know what the export requirements will be because that’s going to determine the level of supply that’s eligible for China.
We know there is strong demand in China; we have inquiries from buyers in China wanting to know when the market will be opened. If you look at the volume of beef they are importing from other suppliers, that’s a good indicator of strong demand, but demand is only one factor.
We still need to know how much of our supply is going to be eligible and, until we know that, it’s difficult to project what the actual impact will be on our exports. Certainly there is potential for it to be significant, but it’s too early to tell that for sure.
I understand there is a lot of uncertainty on what it will actually do for the beef industry, but can you tell us what it has the potential to do?
Schuele: It has the potential to impact our exports in a couple of ways. First, there is the actual volume that we will move to China which, even though we don’t know what there is yet, we would hope that we are able to move a significant volume to China.
There is also the factor of having one more Asian market open to U.S. beef and the impact those certain cuts that tend to command a premium in Asia versus what they will sell for in the domestic market. That premium can be enhanced the more Asian markets you have that are buying. But again, that is speculation if we are able to move a certain volume to China. 
PHOTO: Joe Shcuele
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Cassidy Woolsey
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