This projected growth rate is more brisk than the 0.5 percent rate in 2013 but slower than the 9.4 percent increase in 2012.

Nevertheless, this expected pace is consistent with a moderate recovery of import demand, which reflects the anticipated 3 percent expansion of the domestic economy this year.

Furthermore, the numerous snowstorms and severe cold weather in many parts of the country are also contributing to weak consumer spending.

Indeed, the U.S. import volume for food and farm products in the first quarter of this fiscal year declined by 0.8 percent from the same quarter in 2013.

Growth in cattle imports from Mexico and Canada will be limited by tight supplies. Expected beef imports in 2014 are raised to 757,000 tons despite continued strong demand in a number of other foreign export markets, especially from Asia.

The $4 billion projected import value for beef and veal represents an 8 percent gain from 2013 fueled by strong demand for processing meat and higher overall beef prices.

The long-term picture for U.S. agricultural imports is tied to population growth, income levels, price changes and taste preferences. Population growth is now around 0.7 percent per year, half of the pace of two decades ago.

This slowing factor may partially be offset by food taste preferences that favor foreign products. However, the purchasing power of consumers is influenced by price changes in foreign markets as well as by the exchange value of the U.S. dollar.

Brazil

The concentrated grain cattle-feeding industry in Brazil has been investing in yield gains and feedlot efficiency instead of opening new areas of pastures for grass finishing.

Long term, feeders seeking more grazing pastures are meeting increased competition with farmers of other crops, such as soybean, corn and sugar cane.

This competition for grazing land is pushing up stocking rates on Brazilian cattle pastures – especially in light of short-term unfavorable grazing conditions in many areas of the country.

The states of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, where most cattle are grass-finished, had the hottest January on record and the least rain in two decades.

In response, Brazilian fed cattle markets continued to move up early in the year. The fed cattle pricing index rose 2.79 percent the first three months of 2014.

End-of-March benchmark cattle prices in Sao Paulo rose to a record 115.07 reals ($48 USD) per arroba (32 pounds). The increase is attributed to the limited supply of slaughter-ready animals.

Grain-fed cattle price increases have been buffered by increased costs – especially rising corn prices due to the weather conditions and the dollar valuation against real. Grain-fed cattle represent about 3 percent of all slaughter-ready cattle in Brazil.

China

Meat price stability is on the agenda for Chinese politicians, with beef and mutton taking top priority. Urbanization and dietary change is outstripping the rate at which beef and mutton can be produced for the Chinese market.

National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) chairman Xu Shaoshi was reported in China Daily as saying that 200,000 metric tons worth of emergency beef and mutton imports were being scheduled.

“The most urgent shortages involve beef and mutton,” he told China Daily. “Prices are rising quickly, and in some areas, you can’t buy these meats, no matter what you’re willing to pay.”

Shaoshi said a national investment of 1.7 billion yuan to spur production on big farms had been introduced in September. He blamed the shortage partly on a move of many farmers to pigs in 2006, when keeping cattle became too expensive.

But beef and sheep meat are perceived by consumers as being more nutritious and have a “greener reputation” compared to pork due to different feeding methods. Poultry, meanwhile, is more popular in quick-service restaurants, which are growing rapidly in China.

Moreover, processed meats, such as ham and sausage, are serving as a replacement in traditional home-cooked dishes due to faster-paced lifestyles. The change in the diversity of meat consumption in China reflects the increasing demand for greater added value, variety and more health attributes.

Russian Federation

Multiple cases of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in southern Russia in late 2013 and into this year have animal health authorities wary of more outbreaks.

Herds of cattle, sheep, goats and pigs in a remote village near the Chinese border have been hit with FMD according to the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE).

The most recent, a Feb. 12 outbreak, affected 2,009 cattle – of which five died – 2,711 sheep and goats and 92 pigs. This outbreak is in the same region as one reported earlier in the year.

The usual control measures have been imposed and 3,127 cattle have been vaccinated against the disease.

The Russian cases of FMD
follow news of FMD outbreaks in Tibet, Mongolia, central China and Korea. 

Clint Peck is former director of Montana’s Beef Quality Assurance program.