The low point of the current beef cycle was 2014 following droughts in 2011 and 2012, along with high feed prices in 2013, which led to large cattle herd reductions.
The USDA recently released the January Cattle Inventory report which confirmed the July 2019 preliminary cattle report. The January report showed a small reduction in the U.S. cattle inventory, down 400,000 head, but replacement numbers indicate this trend will continue. Beef replacements were 2% lower, and dairy replacements were 1% lower than last year. The USDA also revised downward the July 2019 calf crop estimate to follow the lower cow numbers.
These indicators will eventually mean fewer feedlot placements, but that is not yet the case. The USDA shows on Jan. 1 that cattle on feed were 2% more than one year ago. In December 2019, feedlots placed 3% more cattle than a year ago and marketed 5% more animals than one year earlier. Total cattle on feed is up 2%, but heifers on feed increased by 4%. This is another indicator that calf numbers will continue to decline and eventually rise. However, one analyst suggests that 2020 prices are likely to remain close to those in 2019.
Get more observations on the January 2020 Cattle Inventory report. 
This originally appeared on the University of Nebraska Extension Red Willow Farm and Ranch Management blog.
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Robert Tigner
- Agricultural Systems Economist
- University of Nebraska Extension
