Hot temperatures and tight income margins cooled U.S. milk production growth in August, as cow numbers dropped and milk per cow slipped into reverse, according to the USDA’s latest Milk Production report, released Sept. 20. At 1.1%, August’s year-over-year milk production increase was the smallest since June 2019-20 (not counting February 2021 and the impact of a leap year).
Natzke dave
Dave Natzke
Editor / Progressive Dairy

August 2020-21 recap at a glance

Reviewing the USDA preliminary estimates for August 2021 compared to August 2020:

  • U.S. milk production: 18.84 billion pounds, up 1.1%
  • U.S. cow numbers: 9.48 million, up 106,000 head
  • U.S. average milk per cow: 1,987 pounds, down 1 pound
  • 24-state milk production: 18 billion pounds, up 1.1%
  • 24-state cow numbers: 8.97 million, up 112,000 head
  • 24-state average milk per cow: 2,007 pounds, down 3 pounds

Source: USDA Milk Production report, Sept. 20, 2021

The latest report also revised the July 2021 milk production estimate slightly lower, subtracting 18 million pounds (0.1%) from last month's preliminary estimate. That means July year-over-year U.S. production growth was 2%.

Cow numbers drop

August 2021 cow numbers remained well above year-earlier levels but recorded a large, 19,000-head decline from July. Since peaking in May, U.S. cow numbers were down 29,000 head.

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In the 24 major dairy states, August cow numbers were down 20,000 head from July and 27,000 head less than May’s peak. July 2021’s preliminary cow numbers were revised lower by 1,000 head.

Compared to a year earlier (Table 1), August 2021 cow numbers were reported higher in 15 states and lower in nine states.

092021 natzke cow numbers tb1

Texas led all states in year-over-year growth in cow numbers, up 32,000 head, but the state’s dairy herd size was unchanged from July 2021. The Midwest is home to substantially more cows than a year ago, up a combined 92,000 head in Minnesota, South Dakota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana and Iowa. Idaho also posted a 9,000-head increase from the year before.

New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Washington exhibited the biggest drop from a year earlier, down a combined 32,000 head.

Compared to a month earlier, New Mexico cow numbers were down an estimated 10,000 head.

Second-half 2021 dairy cull cow slaughter stronger

The USDA’s weekly Livestock Slaughter report indicates the pace of dairy cull cow slaughter in the second half of 2021 remains stronger than a year ago.

According to the summary for the week ending Sept. 4, dairy cull cow slaughter at federally inspected plants was higher than the corresponding week a year earlier for 13 consecutive weeks, dating back to early June. During that period, slaughter was about 60,000 more than a year earlier.

After trending lower through most of the first half of 2021, year-to-date 2021 slaughter (as of Sept. 4) was estimated at just under 2.16 million head, up about 38,000 head from the same period a year earlier.

Milk per cow falls

Likely due to heat and forage concerns, average milk output per cow went in reverse both in the U.S. and among many major dairy states. Overall monthly U.S. production per cow fell 1 pound compared to August 2020, with a 3-pound decline across all major states (Table 2).

092021 natzke cow numbers tb2

Only six states saw August 2021 milk production per cow increase from the same month a year earlier, led by Georgia, up a modest 1 pound per day. In contrast, 10 states saw per-cow output decline from the year before. Largest declines were in New Mexico, down 100 pounds, and Washington, down 65 pounds.

Milk volume, percentage growth slows

With cow numbers declining and weaker milk production per cow, the overall pace of year-over-year milk production growth slowed to its lowest level of the year.

Wisconsin led all states in terms of August 2021 milk volume growth, up 69 million pounds from August 2020. South Dakota production was up 44 million pounds, followed by Michigan and Texas, both up by 39 million pounds.

California milk production increased by 24 million pounds, with Idaho up 16 million pounds.

Offsetting that growth, lower cow numbers in New Mexico and Washington contributed to a 100-million pound decline, combined.

On a percentage basis, August 2021 output in South Dakota was up more than 16% from a year earlier. More subdued growth occurred in Michigan (3.9%), Texas (3.2%), Wisconsin (2.6%), Idaho (1.1%) and California (0.7%).

New Mexico and Washington led decliners, down 9.3% and 6.6%, respectively.  end mark