A reduction in cow numbers and a smaller increase in milk output per cow helped slow U.S. milk production growth in July, according to the USDA’s latest Milk Production report, released Aug. 19. At 2%, July’s year-over-year milk production increase was the smallest since March.
July 2020-21 recap at a glance
Reviewing the USDA preliminary estimates for July 2021 compared to July 2020:
- U.S. milk production: 19.14 billion pounds, up 2%
- U.S. cow numbers: 9.5 million, up 128,000 head
- U.S. average milk per cow: 2,015 pounds, up 14 pounds
- 24-state milk production: 18.29 billion pounds, up 2.1%
- 24-state cow numbers: 8.99 million, up 136,000 head
- 24-state average milk per cow: 2,035 pounds, up 11 pounds
Source: USDA Milk Production report, Aug. 19, 2021
The latest report also revised the June 2021 milk production estimate slightly lower, subtracting 1 million pounds (less than 0.1%) from last month's preliminary estimate. That means June year-over-year U.S. production growth was 3.2%.
Cow numbers lower
July 2021 cow numbers remained well above year-earlier levels but declined for a second consecutive month. Not only were July 2021 cow numbers down 3,000 head from June, but the USDA report also revised June 2021 numbers down 5,000 head. July 2021 cow numbers in the 24 major dairy states were down 3,000 from June, and June’s preliminary estimate was also revised 2,000 head lower.
The downward trend should continue, or at least it will be difficult to keep pace with last year's herd growth. July 2020 was the start of an 11-month stretch in which cow numbers grew by 154,000 head in the U.S. and 162,000 head in the 24 major dairy states.
Compared to a year earlier (Table 1), July 2021 cow numbers were reported higher in 15 states and lower in seven states, with California and Illinois unchanged.
Texas led all states in growth in cow numbers, up 35,000 head from the year before and 1,000 more than June 2021. The Midwest is home to substantially more cows than a year ago, up a combined 95,000 head in Minnesota, South Dakota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana and Iowa. Idaho also posted a 10,000-head increase from the year before. New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Washington exhibited the biggest drop from a year earlier, down a combined 20,000 head.
Compared to a month earlier, Wisconsin cow numbers were up 3,000 head, offset by declines of 5,000 and 2,000 head in New Mexico and Washington, respectively.
The USDA’s Livestock Slaughter report was also released on Aug. 19, indicating another increase in dairy cull cow slaughter during July. Dairy cull cow slaughter at federally inspected plants during the month was estimated at 247,900 head, up about 12,400 head from June 2021 and 14,200 more than July 2020. However, through the first seven months of 2021, dairy cull cow slaughter was estimated at 1.811 million, about 14,900 head less than the same period a year earlier despite a substantially larger dairy herd.
Milk per cow growth slows
Year-over-year growth in U.S. and major dairy state average milk output per cow slowed in July to less than one-half pound per day (Table 2). Seven states saw July 2021 milk production per cow decline from the same month a year earlier, including six Western states where drought may be taking a toll. Washington output per cow was down 85 pounds per cow during the month, with average production also lower in Colorado, Oregon, California, Idaho and New Mexico in the West and Virginia in the Southeast.
Wisconsin led all states in increased output per cow in July 2021, up 60 pounds from July 2020.
Michigan maintained its spot atop the milk-per-cow list, averaging 2,320 pounds of milk during July, more than 300 pounds higher than the U.S. average for the month.
Milk volume, percentage growth slows
With more cows and stronger milk production per cow, Wisconsin led all states in terms of July 2021 milk volume growth, up 120 million pounds from July 2020. Texas milk production was up 88 million pounds, with South Dakota and Michigan up 45 million and 43 million pounds, respectively. California milk production declined by 26 million pounds, and Washington was down 40 million pounds from the same month a year earlier.
On a percentage basis, July 2021 output in South Dakota remains on a torrid pace, up 17% from a year earlier. Texas, Indiana and Iowa saw increases of 5% or more. Washington (-6.7%) led decliners.
