There’s still time and weather to impact 2022 cropping plans, but initial indications are that U.S. acreage devoted to dry hay production could be the lowest in 115 years.
The USDA’s 2022 Prospective Plantings report was released March 31, providing a first glimpse of how acreage will be distributed among major crops this growing season. Estimates included in the Prospective Plantings report are based primarily on producer surveys conducted during the first two weeks of March.
U.S. producers intend to harvest 50.3 million acres of all hay in 2022, down 1% from 2021 (Table 1). If realized, this will represent the lowest total hay harvested area since 1907.
The pre-season estimate doesn’t differentiate between alfalfa and other hay. Previously, the USDA estimated acreage newly seeded to alfalfa in 2021 at 1.65 million acres, down about 25% (285,000 acres) from 2020, and the lowest acreage devoted to new seeding since the USDA started releasing estimates two decades ago.
The decline in 2022 hay acreage follows a year which ended with the third-smallest on-farm inventory of hay since 1977.
Read: Hay stocks third lowest since 1977.
Individual, dairy states
Based on the preliminary estimates, North Dakota will see the largest increase in hay area in 2022, up 280,000 acres, to 2.3 million acres. Producers in Missouri, Montana and Wyoming are each expected to boost hay acreage by 160,000 acres, followed by South Dakota, up 100,000 acres.
Largest declines are anticipated in Texas, down 600,000 acres from 2021; Oklahoma, down 350,000 acres; and Tennessee, down 205,000 acres.
Despite the decline, Texas will lead all states in 2022 hay area at 5 million acres, followed by Missouri (3.3 million acres), Kansas (2.75 million acres) and Oklahoma (2.6 million acres). Nebraska, South Dakota, Montana, North Dakota and Kentucky are all expected to surpass 2 million acres devoted to hay in 2022.
Record-low all-hay harvested area is expected in Connecticut, Delaware, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont and West Virginia.
Among the 24 major dairy states, area devoted to hay is projected at 27.27 million acres, a decline of 460,000 acres from the year before, due primarily to the acreage decline in Texas. Hay acreage declines are also expected in 10 other dairy states, led by New York, Virginia, Illinois and Pennsylvania.
Dairy states expected to boost hay acreage in 2022 are led by South Dakota, up 100,000 acres, to 2.5 million. Colorado, Wisconsin and Minnesota are each forecast to boost hay acreage by about 70,000 acres, with Kansas up 60,000 acres. Hay acreage in Idaho and California is forecast to increase 20,000 and 10,000 acres, respectively.
Other crops
With inflation, high input costs and supply concerns, geopolitical unrest and drought, there’s plenty of uncertainty regarding 2022 crop acreage. Here’s a summary of early acreage estimates from the USDA:
- Corn-planted area for all purposes in 2022 is estimated at 89.5 million acres, down 4% (3.87 million acres) from last year, with acreage expected to be down or unchanged in 43 of the 48 estimating states. Record-high acreage is expected in Nevada and South Dakota. Record-low acreage is expected in Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Acreage decreases from last year of 200,000 or more are expected in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio and Wisconsin.
- Soybean-planted area for 2022 is estimated at a record 91 million acres, up 4% from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 24 of the 29 estimating states. Increases of 250,000 acres or more are anticipated in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota and Tennessee. If realized, the planted area in Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin will be the largest on record.
- All wheat-planted area for 2022 is estimated at 47.4 million acres, up 1% from 2021. Even with the increase, this represents the fifth-lowest all wheat-planted area since records began in 1919.
- Cotton-planted area for 2022 is estimated at 12.2 million acres, up 9% from last year.
