The latest USDA Cattle on Feed report pegged the Oct. 1 cattle on feed inventory at 11.45 million head, down 0.9% year over year. This is the first year-over-year decrease in the monthly on-feed inventory since December 2021. Among the largest feedlot states, on-feed totals in Texas and Nebraska remain higher year over year, up 3.3% and 3.8% respectively, while feedlot totals are down in Kansas, 6.7% lower year over year and Colorado, down 5.3% from last year.
The quarterly breakdown of steers and heifers for Oct. 1 showed that the number of steers on feed was down 2.3% from last year, while the number of heifers was up 1.4% year over year. The number of heifers on feed indicates continued liquidation in the cattle herd, with heifers on feed representing 39.7% of total feedlot inventories – the highest heifer-on-feed percentage in 21 years since October 2001.
The number of heifers on feed in Texas on Oct. 1 was up 13.1% year over year, giving Texas an unusually large share of total heifers on feed and the highest Texas total for heifers on feed since 2001. This is consistent with the severe drought conditions in the southern Plains this year.
September feedlot placements were 96.2% of last year, and the 3.8% year-over-year decrease was the largest monthly placement decrease since July 2021. Placements of cattle from 600 to 900 pounds were down 7.6% year over year, with placements under 600 pounds up 2.3% year over year and placements over 900 pounds up 2.7% year over year. September feedlot placements were lower in Texas (down 8.9% year over year); Kansas, down 11.9%; and Colorado, down 4.5% from last year. However, placements in Nebraska were up 8.3% year over year in September.
Feedlot marketings in September were up 4% year over year, with increased marketings in Nebraska, up 10.3%, and Kansas, up 4.6%. Colorado was unchanged from last year. Marketings from Texas feedlots were down 1.2% year over year in September. Total feedlot marketings in the past six months have averaged 1.4% higher year over year.
Fed cattle slaughter in 2022 has averaged 0.9% higher year over year, with steer slaughter down 1.6% and heifer slaughter up 5% compared to last year. Labor issues in the beef packing industry appear to have improved as average daily (Monday-Friday) fed slaughter totals have increased 3.5% year over year.
Daily fed slaughter reached 100,212 head on Tuesday, May 17, 2022, topping 100,000 head for the first time since December 2013. Daily fed slaughter has exceeded 100,000 head 12 times this year. Average Saturday fed slaughter is down 24.8% year over year in 2022. This another indication that labor issues have improved as packers have relied less on Saturday slaughter despite increased total slaughter.
Drought has forced more cattle into feedlots in 2022, keeping placements higher and maintaining larger feedlot inventories than otherwise would have been the case. The 12-month moving average of feedlot inventories decreased this month for the first time since October 2021. The latest Cattle on Feed report suggests that these temporary impacts may have run their course, which will lead to decreasing feedlot totals and reduced marketings going forward.
This originally appeared in the Oct. 24, 2022, OSU Cow/Calf Corner newsletter.
