U.S. beef production is poised to end 2022 with another record in total output, as January-through-October federally inspected slaughtered beef hit 23.25 billion pounds – a 1.9% increase over the same 10-month period from 2021’s record production.
Slaughter in the past three consecutive months surged past the same months of 2021, as August, September and October saw drought conditions require even more liquidation in the national herd.
With November and December total slaughter still to be reported for 2022, slaughter volume was expected to stretch well into mid-December as holiday demand continued for Christmas roasts.
Patrick Linnell, analyst for CattleFax, broke down the industry's most recent production signs in his Dec. 9 report.
“While commitments for the holiday rib and a few other key items are driving large slaughter levels, this also results in plenty of other items that don’t see as much demand this time of year,” he said. “The strength in the rib and tenderloin has been more than offset by weakness in other items.”
Linnell continued, “The fact that opposite movements in beef complex and fed cattle market have been able to compress packer margins into the red clearly reflects that the industry is well past the severe supply-capacity imbalance of the past three years.”
The USDA cattle market reports for December showed the estimate for fourth-quarter production to go up another 215 million pounds based on slaughter numbers and heavier carcass data.
Total 2022 production estimates went up 211 million pounds from October to 28.3 billion pounds, an increase of more than 1% from last year, the agency said.
That leaves beef production estimates for 2023 to drop even further thanks to the heavy cow slaughter this year. Production forecasts are lowered by 90 million pounds to 26.3 billion pounds, which would be more than 7% below the 2022 projection.
