December 2021-22 recap at a glance
Reviewing the USDA preliminary estimates for December 2022 compared to December 2021:
- U.S. milk production: 18.93 billion pounds, up 0.8%
- U.S. cow numbers: 9.4 million, up 27,000 head
- U.S. average milk per cow: 2,014 pounds, up 9 pounds
- 24-state milk production: 18.125 billion pounds, up 0.9%
- 24-state cow numbers: 8.918 million, up 38,000 head
- 24-state average milk per cow: 2,024 pounds, up 8 pounds
Source: USDA Milk Production report, Jan. 25, 2023
December 2022 U.S. milk production was up from a year ago, but the pace of growth slowed as cow numbers declined to end the year, and the increase in milk output per cow remained subdued.
Cow numbers decline
Preliminary December 2022 U.S. cow numbers were estimated at 9.4 million head, up 27,000 from a year ago. However, cow numbers were down 8,000 head from the November 2022 revised estimate. The USDA also revised the November 2022 estimate down 12,000 head and retroactively reduced cow numbers back through August.
Among the 24 major dairy states (Table 1), December 2022 cow numbers were estimated at 8.918 million, up 38,000 from December 2021 but 9,000 fewer than November 2022. As with the U.S. total, the USDA revised the November estimate, down 9,000 head. That puts cow numbers in the 24 major dairy states down 17,000 since October.
Texas led all states in year-over-year herd growth in December 2022, up 25,000 head from a year ago, followed by South Dakota (+16,000), Iowa (+14,000) and New York (+10,000).
Compared to a year earlier, cow number declines were again heaviest in New Mexico and Florida, both down 13,000 head.
Milk-per-cow growth flat
The year-over-year increase in average milk production per cow for December was almost flat, up less than 0.3 pound per day across the U.S. (Table 2). Year-over-year milk per cow increased minimally in 10 states, led by Michigan, Vermont and New York.
Cows in nine states, led by Virginia, had monthly production declines of 5-25 pounds compared to December 2021.
Milk production growth slows
With a modest year-over-year gain in cow numbers and milk output per cow flat, December 2022 overall milk production was up just 0.8% in the U.S. and 0.9% among major dairy states compared to the same month a year earlier. Both were the smallest year-over-year monthly increases since July.
December 2022 year-over-year milk production was up in 15 states. Texas led all states in terms of volume growth, up 44 million pounds, with New York, South Dakota, Iowa and Idaho combining to add another 115 million pounds. Wisconsin and California production was up 15 million and 10 million pounds, respectively.
The eight states posting volume declines were led by New Mexico, Florida and Washington, which were down a combined 69 million pounds.
Georgia (+10.8%) and South Dakota (+8.9%) again led all states in year-over-year percentage milk growth. In contrast, Florida milk production was down about 12.7%.
Quarterly, annual numbers
The December 2022 Milk Production report provided the first glimpse of preliminary fourth-quarter and total-year estimates.
U.S. milk production during the October-December quarter totaled 56 billion pounds, up 1% from the same period a year earlier. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. was 9.41 million head, 4,000 head less than the July-September 2022 quarter but 27,000 head more than the fourth quarter of 2021.
For 2022, U.S. milk production totaled 226.6 billion pounds, up just 0.2% from 2021. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. was 9.404 million head, 44,000 head less than 2021.
