When, oh when, will the rains of El Nino come again?
The three-year lament appears to be ending as readings in the Pacific Ocean portend warming waters in 2023. El Nino weather patterns, when warming Pacific waters create moisture in much of the West and Midwest states, have been missing since 2019. La Nina, the uglier twin sibling of El Nino, where colder ocean temperatures lead to dryer conditions and less water, has hung around since then and worsened the Western drought.
So it was with some applause that CattleFax meteorology analyst Matt Makens told the crowd at the National Cattlemen's Beef Association (NCBA) Industry Convention, “We're about to slam the door on La Nina.”
“We've seen the clues of that the last several months,” Makens added. “The ocean is changing.”
But slamming the door may be an overstatement. The door remains open in early 2023.
Makens presented two different models as a transition away from La Nina dry precipitation. One shows a slower transition, where the cold ocean water becomes warmer over several months, with fewer major storms until late fall or early 2024. Makens said this is the most likely outcome he can predict.
The other could be a more sudden warming of the Pacific, with faster energy in the ocean temperatures with more rapid assistance from the atmospheric jet stream.
“Bottom line: If I'm a warm ocean, I have lots of energy; I send that energy to the atmosphere, and I create storms. What Mother Nature likes to do is keep things in balance.
“When we bring in El Nino, we change the storm flow globally and especially across North America. We started this La Nina several years ago. It's historically long in duration and has been historically ranked as far as strength, but she's just about done.”
Pacific Ocean water shifts can often mean different stages for South America and Australia. In Australia’s case, the arrival of La Nina after 2019 was especially needed to alleviate drought that decimated herd numbers.
“Australians like La Nina; although, it's too wet in some cases, but when they hear El Nino, that means bad drought,” Makens said. “That's all part of how we balance out Mother Nature.”
Makens said U.S. maps show slower recovery emerging for central and southern Plains regions, from Kansas to the Texas Panhandle, but more recovery seen in the Ohio and Tennessee river valleys heading into spring.
Makens hedged his bets for outcomes in other regions. Just because Pacific waters warm up doesn’t mean the atmospheric conditions will cooperate.
“The atmosphere and the ocean do work together, but maybe several months or several seasons offset from one another,” he said. “So we are progressing to get rid of La Nina. But this spring, La Nina is still controlling our atmosphere, and the summer will be neutral. As we get into the fall, we’ll start to bring in some El Nino elements.”
For specific regions in the neutral period, Makens expects spring dryness to continue in the Southwest, with Pacific Northwest and northern High Plains getting hit-and-miss moisture. Parts of Nebraska, Wyoming and the Dakotas should see some continuing precipitation. Lower High Plains of Colorado and Kansas, along with New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas will still see dry conditions in summer.
All that begins to shift to a neutral standpoint in summer, eliminating the extremes of drought and dryness. “Pretty much everywhere east of the Rockies a much more favorable precipitation pattern emerges this summer than over the years past.”
As for the possibility that El Nino develops rapidly across the country before fall, all precipitation models would change starting with a huge swath of moisture across the South.
“We're going to have so much water across the country if El Nino truly kicks into high gear this fall. I think the transition is too quick. I think we do have wetness this fall in pockets, surplus in some cases. But I don't think we can fully transition. It will kick in, but give it some time.”
