January 2022-23 recap at a glance
Reviewing the USDA preliminary estimates for January 2023 compared to January 2022:
- U.S. milk production: 19.3 billion pounds, up 1.3%
- U.S. cow numbers: 9.405 million, up 38,000 head
- U.S. average milk per cow: 2,052 pounds, up 18 pounds
- 24-state milk production: 18.469 billion pounds, up 1.5%
- 24-state cow numbers: 8.927 million, up 51,000 head
- 24-state average milk per cow: 2,069 pounds, up 18 pounds
Source: USDA Milk Production report, Feb. 22, 2023
January 2023 U.S. milk production growth picked up the pace as both cow numbers and milk output per cow increased.
Cow numbers higher
After declining in the fourth quarter of 2022, preliminary January 2023 U.S. cow numbers were estimated at 9.405 million head, up 38,000 from a year earlier and 9,000 more than the revised estimate for December 2022. The USDA adjusted the December 2022 estimate down 4,000 head from last month’s report.
Among the 24 major dairy states (Table 1), January 2023 cow numbers were estimated at 8.927 million, up 51,000 from January 2022 and 9,000 more than December 2022.
U.S. and major dairy state cow numbers were the highest since last October.
Texas led all states in year-over-year herd growth in January, up 22,000 head from a year ago, followed by South Dakota (+17,000), Iowa (+16,000), Idaho (+12,000) and New York (+10,000).
Compared to a year earlier, cow number declines were heaviest in New Mexico and Florida, down 13,000 and 12,000 head, respectively.
Milk-per-cow strengthens
Relative to recent months, the year-over-year increase in average milk production per cow for January was a little stronger, up 18 pounds compared to the same month a year earlier (Table 2). Year-over-year milk per cow increased more than a pound per day in Michigan, New York, Wisconsin and Texas. In contrast, monthly milk output per cow was down 10-15 pounds in Kansas, Illinois and South Dakota.
Milk production increases
With a year-over-year gain in cow numbers and milk output per cow stronger, January 2023 overall milk production was up 1.3% in the U.S. and 1.5% among major dairy states compared to the same month a year earlier. Both were the largest increases since last September.
January 2023 year-over-year milk production was up in 15 states. Texas led all states in terms of volume growth, up 72 million pounds, with New York and Wisconsin up 46 million pounds and 44 million pounds, respectively, and Idaho, Iowa and South Dakota each adding 30-35 million pounds.
The nine states posting volume declines were led by New Mexico, Florida and Washington, which were down a combined 57 million pounds.
South Dakota (+9.1%) and Iowa (+7.4%) led all states in year-over-year percentage milk growth. In contrast, Florida milk production was down about 11.7%.
Other details
Other numbers of note in the USDA’s Milk Production report:
- The number of dairy herds licensed to sell milk in 2022 averaged 27,932, down 1,910 from a year earlier. U.S. cow numbers averaged 9.402 million head in 2022, 47,000 fewer than in 2021. Based on those two estimates, the U.S. average herd size was 336.6 cows in 2022, up about 20 head from 2021’s average.
- Idaho maintained a slim lead over Texas as the third-ranked state for annual milk production. Idaho produced 16.628 billion pounds in 2022, compared to 16.524 billion pounds in Texas.
Watch for more analysis in Progressive Dairy's annual statistical review, appearing in the April 1, 2023, issue.
