The USDA’s monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released March 8. Compared to last month, the USDA reduced the U.S. milk production estimate for 2022 but increased the forecast for 2023 production slightly.
- At 226.5 billion pounds, estimated milk production for 2022 was lowered another 100 million pounds from last month. Final 2022 production was up just 200 million pounds (0.08%) from 2021 and up about 1.4% from 2020.
The 2022 annual average Class III price was $21.94 per hundredweight (cwt), the Class IV price was $24.47 per cwt, and the 2022 all-milk price was $25.56 per cwt.
- At 228.5 billion pounds, the 2023 production forecast was raised by 200 million pounds from last month, based on a larger cow inventory. If realized, 2023 production would be up about 0.8% from 2022.
For 2023, the price forecast for cheese was reduced, while projected prices for butter, nonfat dry milk and dry whey were raised slightly. Compared to earlier estimates, the projected 2023 Class III price was reduced another 35 cents to $17.55 per cwt, while the Class IV price forecast was raised a nickel to $18.30 per cwt. The projected 2023 all-milk price was reduced 25 cents to $20.45 per cwt.
Beef price outlook higher
For 2023, the beef production forecast was raised from last month. Slaughter projections are raised through the first three quarters of the year on higher cow slaughter and increased placements of cattle in feedlots in the first quarter of 2023, which will likely be marketed in the third quarter.
Projected cattle prices were raised for all four quarters of 2023 on expectations of firm demand amid tightening feedlot numbers. Potentially affecting cull cow prices, the fed cattle price forecast for 2023 was estimated at $162 per cwt, up $3 last month’s forecast. Highest average prices were forecast for the second and fourth quarters of the year.
Feed price, production forecasts
The WASDE report also provided potential insights into dairy feedstuff supplies and prices:
- Corn: This month’s 2022-23 U.S. corn outlook called for lower exports and larger ending stocks. At $6.60 per bushel, the projected season-average corn price received by producers was cut a dime from last month’s forecast but is up 60 cents (10%) from the 2021-22 average of $6 per bushel and about $2.07 (46%) more than 2020-21 average of $4.53 per bushel.
- Soybeans: The 2022-23 U.S. soybean supply and use outlook called for higher exports, lower crush and reduced ending stocks compared with last month’s report. The U.S. season-average soybean price received by producers for 2022-23 was forecast at $14.30 per bushel, unchanged from last month’s projections and up $1 from 2021-22 and $3.50 more than the 2020-21 average.
The 2022-23 soybean meal price was projected at $465 per ton, up $15 from last month’s forecast and up about $25 from the $440 per ton average in 2021-22.
